Crypto Market Report July 2025: Bitcoin (BTC) at ATH

Macroeconomic Context

July 2025 was marked by a series of major macroeconomic events in the United States, which shaped the evolution of risk financial markets and, consequently, the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin (BTC) markets.

• Interest Rates and Inflation

At the July FOMC meeting, the US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rates within the 4.25–4.5% range, a decision in line with consensus expectations. Some committee members argued in favor of an immediate rate cut, but Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance, highlighting the uncertainty linked to the impact of new tariffs on inflation.

Inflation data released in July (CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, core PCE projected at 3% by the end of 2025) show a gradual slowdown, but still insufficient to trigger a monetary pivot. Markets remain highly sensitive to any shift in the Fed’s language and now price in the likelihood of a rate cut toward the end of 2025.

• Trade Policy and Tariffs

Another key event of the month concerned tariffs. The Trump administration, after extending the suspension of tariff hikes until August 1, maintained uncertainty until the very last moment.

Tariffs with Europe were ultimately set at 15% and are expected to take effect on August 7, while tariffs with China were lowered to 55% after escalating to as high as 145% in the spring. The US still threatens to raise them again if no action is taken regarding fentanyl trafficking.

Several countries were hit with higher-than-expected tariffs (Taiwan, South Africa, Switzerland, Brazil, Turkey, India, etc.). While some strategic agreements provided brief relief for markets, the prospect of renewed tariff escalation at the start of August continues to fuel a return of volatility.

• Crypto Regulation

July also brought significant regulatory developments for cryptocurrencies in the US. The first was the passage of the Genius Act by the House of Representatives, a bill focused on the strict oversight of stablecoins and their integration into the banking system, laying the foundation for gradual normalization of the US stablecoin sector.

Discussions around “altcoin” ETFs accelerated as well, including the announcement of a Solana spot ETF, opening the door for broader institutional diversification beyond Bitcoin. In addition, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that ETH is not a security — ending a long-standing debate — which could also pave the way for the approval of staking-enabled ETFs.

Finally, the SEC made an unexpected announcement at the end of July: “Project Crypto.” The goal of this initiative is to explore the possibility of transitioning US financial markets onto the blockchain.

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Crypto Market Analysis

July was a particularly positive month for the cryptocurrency market. After breaking above $100,000 again in May, BTC entered a prolonged consolidation phase throughout June, trading in a channel between $100,000 and $110,000.

On July 9, BTC broke through this resistance strongly, reaching a new all-time high of $123,300 on July 17. Following a short consolidation period, renewed trade tensions initiated by the US triggered a mild correction. BTC closed the month at $115,750, up roughly 8%.

More notably, BTC’s market dominance dropped sharply in July. After reaching its highest level since January 2021 (around 66%), BTC.D fell throughout the month to end at 61.5%, down 5.3 points.

This decline in dominance gave altcoins some breathing room, with Ether (ETH) leading the charge. The second-largest cryptocurrency rose 48.5% in July, briefly surpassing $4,000 and fully erasing its poor performance from early 2025.

The ETH/BTC ratio surged 36% in July, its strongest monthly gain since May 2021. The total market capitalization excluding BTC (TOTAL2) increased from $1.14 trillion to $1.433 trillion, up 25.8% for the month, driven by Ethereum’s outperformance and strong momentum in several major altcoins.

Notable performances include MemeCore (+813%), Zora (+702%), Hyperlane (+412%), Spark (+290%), Ethena (+138%), and Pudgy Penguins (+127%).

Finally, the OAK Research Watchlist — a selection of the most interesting market assets according to criteria defined by our team — will soon be made available on our platform with the V2 launch in September. For now, here is a preview of the performance: BTC (+8%), ETH (+48.8%), ENA (+138%), FLUID (+31%), PENDLE (+16.7%), EUL (+15%), HYPE (+3%), and SYRUP (–23%).

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Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

Bitcoin spot ETFs continued their positive momentum in July, recording a total net inflow of $6.01 billion for the month, accelerating from June (+$4.58 billion) and May (+$5.25 billion). The best day came on July 10, the day after BTC broke out from its consolidation range, with over $1.18 billion in net inflows.

What stands out most for Bitcoin spot ETFs is the consistency of momentum: 17 days of positive flows out of 31 in July, despite a sharp correction in the final days of the month. This reinforces BTC’s new status as a preferred asset in institutional portfolios.

The real surprise in July came from Ethereum ETFs. After several relatively quiet months, flows accelerated significantly: $5.43 billion in July compared to $1.17 billion in June and $564 million in May. With 21 positive days, Ethereum spot ETFs have clearly regained the attention of institutional investors.

Most notably, July’s total inflows represented more than 50% of the AUM as of July 1. In addition, AUM rose by 110% over the month to surpass $21 billion.

When adjusting these flows for each asset’s respective market capitalization (ETH being about 5.75 times smaller than BTC), the outperformance of Ethereum ETFs becomes striking. In relative terms, adjusted inflows into ETH were roughly five times higher than those of Bitcoin spot ETFs over the same period.

Recent comments from SEC Chairman Paul Atkins are particularly positive for Ethereum: the asset is officially not considered a security, and staking is also not classified as such — opening the door to staking-enabled ETFs. This would be an additional catalyst for Ethereum spot ETFs.

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Stablecoins

The stablecoin sector remains the strongest-performing segment of the crypto market. The success of Circle’s IPO, whose stock peaked at $299 (a 367% increase from its listing price), highlights the growing institutional appetite for this asset class.

In July 2025, the sector’s total market capitalization rose from $258.29 billion to $271.40 billion, up +5.08%. This continues the steady upward trend observed for over a year (June: +5.27%, May: +8.15%), with the sector growing more than 70% over the past twelve months.

The ranking of the largest stablecoins remains mostly unchanged. Tether’s USDT maintains its lead with $164.56 billion in market cap (+3.66% for the month), followed by Circle’s USDC at $63.68 billion (+4.03%).

The real competition is for third place. While Ethena’s USDe is technically the third-largest stablecoin with $8.21 billion, it is actually behind Sky (formerly MakerDAO), whose two stablecoins (USDS and DAI) combined total $9.22 billion.

In July, USDe’s market cap surged 54.9%, driven by deeper integration in DeFi and on emerging blockchains (such as Hyperliquid). Over the same period, USDS and DAI together grew by 5.78%.

Note: USDe could enter the top 3 stablecoins within the next few months if this trend continues.

One of the biggest stablecoin headlines in July was the enactment of the Genius Act, a law signed by Donald Trump providing a clear regulatory framework for US stablecoin issuers. The first stablecoin officially regulated under this law is Ethena’s USDtb, valued at over $1.5 billion and now officially authorized to launch in the US.

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Blockchain Performance

• Ethereum, still the undisputed leader:

Ethereum continues to dominate, holding nearly 60% of total TVL with $81 billion in July (+32% for the month). ETH’s 48% price increase in July played a major role, but so did a massive influx of liquidity from other blockchains: $1.6 billion in net capital inflows, the highest in the ecosystem.

This trend benefited all Ethereum-based protocols, making July their strongest month of 2025. Aave remains the clear DeFi leader with over $36 billion in TVL (+37%), followed by Lido ($33.9 billion, +44%) and EigenLayer ($18.1 billion, +50%).

Next are Etherfi ($10.2 billion, +54%) and Ethena ($9.8 billion, +80%), whose July growth aligns with USDe’s surge. Given this momentum, Ethena could soon enter the industry’s top 5 protocols.

• Base, record TVL and activity

Base hit a new all-time high of $8.2 billion in TVL in July, making it Ethereum’s highest-valued L2. DEX volumes reached $41.6 billion, up 47% month-over-month.

Coinbase rolled out the Flashblocks upgrade on Base’s mainnet, reducing block times from 2 seconds to 200 milliseconds, making it Ethereum’s fastest L2. However, Base also saw the largest net capital outflows in July, with $860 million exiting the network.

• Tron, the stablecoin leader

Tron remains the leader in stablecoin capitalization, with over $82 billion, largely due to USDT. Tron’s DeFi TVL is $8.9 billion (+4%), underscoring its role as a hub for stablecoin transfers.

In terms of revenue, Tron ranks fourth with $60 million in July. Tron also made its Nasdaq debut under “Tron Inc.” (TRON) through a reverse merger with SRM Entertainment. However, pressure is mounting from new entrants Plasma and Stable.

• Hyperliquid continues its growth

Hyperliquid’s L1 shows $6.5 billion in TVL, including $4.5 billion from its DEX and $2 billion from HyperEVM. This is up 34% in July, the highest growth among top blockchains. In terms of capital flows, Hyperliquid ranks just behind Ethereum with $1.2 billion in net inflows.

From a revenue perspective, Hyperliquid ranks third with $90 million over the past 30 days (behind Tether and Circle), cementing its position as the most profitable blockchain and application in the industry.

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DeFi Regains Momentum

The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector confirmed its recovery trend in July 2025, fueled by capital inflows into new protocols and renewed appetite for on-chain innovation. With $115 billion in January 2025 and $111 billion on July 1, DeFi TVL surged 22% to $136 billion by the end of July.

• Aave surpasses $50 billion in TVL

Aave became the first DeFi protocol to exceed $50 billion in TVL (including loans) and currently sits at $59 billion as of August 1. We note $36 billion earlier in this report as we prefer to exclude loans from the calculation, even though including them is the more conventional metric.

• Morpho’s TVL soars

In July, Morpho’s TVL jumped 40% to $6 billion. Ethereum ($3.37 billion) and Base ($1.57 billion) remain its largest chains, but adoption of Morpho’s stack by Hyperbeat and Felix has pushed Hyperliquid’s share above $500 million in TVL.

• Maple becomes the top on-chain asset manager

Maple reached $3 billion in TVL in July, becoming the largest on-chain asset manager, overtaking BlackRock’s tokenized BUIDL fund.

• Ethena, the new stablecoin proxy

With $8.2 billion in market cap and 54.9% growth in July, Ethena’s USDe is on track to become the third-largest stablecoin. In parallel, Ethena’s TVL grew 80% in 30 days to $9.8 billion.

In July, Ethena also became the first issuer to offer a Genius Act-compliant stablecoin. USDtb, currently valued at $1.45 billion, will now launch in the US.

Additionally, Ethena announced the creation of a new entity, StablecoinX, through a merger with TGLY Acquisition Corp., a SPAC enabling a Nasdaq listing under the symbol USDE. The company will raise $360 million to accumulate ENA in treasury, a move that drove ENA up 138% at the end of July.