Crypto Market Report September 2025: Towards a new ATH for Uptober?

Macro Environment

Where Things Stand

September 2025 confirmed what we anticipated in our previous market report: the U.S. economy has entered an early stagflation regime. For the first time in more than three decades, the Federal Reserve cut policy rates while inflation remains well above its 2% target. On September 17, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points, opening an easing cycle that could continue through year-end.

This pivot wasn’t voluntary; it was forced by a sharp deterioration in the labor market. Data published in August show the U.S. economy has shed more than 1.7 million jobs since 2024. New job creation is no longer enough to stabilize unemployment, which is now back to its highest levels since 2021. Employment, long seen as the core pillar of U.S. resilience, is giving way.

The problem is that this monetary shift is happening while inflation remains elevated. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred gauge, printed 2.7% in August, while the “core” measure (excluding energy and food) held near 3%. This summer’s tariff hikes continue to pass through into import prices, adding inflationary pressure.

Layered on top of this are fiscal imbalances. Interest expense on federal debt now exceeds 13% of annual tax revenues (a world record) while the money supply continues to expand at a pace unseen since the pandemic. The dollar, meanwhile, is weakening rapidly and just posted its worst half-year performance since the end of Bretton Woods in 1973.

Outlook for October

Financial markets are oscillating between anxiety and euphoria. U.S. equities continue to be pulled higher by mega-cap tech and AI, with Nvidia crossing the $4.5 trillion market-cap threshold.

At the same time, institutional investors are aggressively hedging against volatility, anticipating short-term turbulence. Gold, the quintessential safe haven, has benefited from this backdrop to notch a new all-time high above $3,500/oz.

In short, the U.S. economy now combines persistent inflation, weakening employment, and unchecked deficits: the very definition of stagflation, a scenario markets have long feared.

For October, three tests will set the tone: the next jobs report (to confirm whether labor-market deterioration is accelerating); the next inflation prints (to assess whether rate cuts reignite price pressures); and the budget deadline and impact of a potential U.S. government shutdown.

ByBit is the official sponsor of our monthly market report. If you’d like to open an account on ByBit EU (a fully regulated platform in Europe), please use our partner link.

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Crypto Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

In September 2025, Bitcoin gained 5.3%, rising from $108,000 to over $114,000. The path was choppy: a strong start took BTC to $118,000 around September 18, followed by a sharp drop that brought it slightly above its monthly open. The final days delivered a clean rebound, erasing part of the drawdown.

Technically, the uptrend remains intact. The September 1 low at $107,400 held, and the new trough on September 25 at $108,700 is now the reference pivot. As long as this level is preserved, the short-term structure remains constructive. Reclaiming the $111,000 area at month-end reinforced that scenario.

Ether (ETH)

ETH, by contrast, posted a -3.9% month, rallying to $4,800 early on, then correcting hard below $4,000, a psychological level it ultimately reclaimed to close around $4,200.

Technically, ETH sits in a consolidation that began in late August. The range is clear: an upper bound near its $4,900 ATH, and a lower bound around $4,000, briefly undercut then reclaimed.

The key band to watch now is $4,800 (a breakout would confirm trend continuation) versus $3,850 (a break would invalidate August’s momentum and open a deeper corrective phase).

Altcoins and BTC.D

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) rose by ~1.5% in September, signaling a modest de-risk as investors favored BTC over alts. After touching a 57.2% low, dominance rebounded to 58.5% into month-end.

Since late August, dominance has been range-bound with two immediate paths:

• A sustained break above 58.8% opens a move toward 60.1% and a renewed BTC outperformance;
• A rejection there followed by a 57.2% break would reopen the alt outperformance trade.

Even so, several alts delivered outsized returns in September:

• APX (APX) - former token from Aster (ASTER): +1,870%
• MYX Finance (MYX): +1,447%
• Collector Crypt (CARDS): +757%
• ApeX (APEX): +655%
• ZCash (ZEC): +261%

These spectacular moves largely reflect the perp DEX meta, which currently concentrates speculative flows. Whether ASTER, APEX, or MYX, perp-linked projects are attracting capital and traders at scale.

We flagged this early in our Alpha Feed and Premium analyses. To track these rotations in real time, we invite you to join us.

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Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

When it comes to listed products on Bitcoin and Ethereum, there is a clear shift compared with August, explained by the macro elements and market analysis above. Whereas in August BTC ETFs saw significant outflows and ETH ETFs benefited from large positive inflows, things evened out in September.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs

Bitcoin spot ETFs end the month with a positive net balance of +$3.51 billion, a relatively good result and in line with the 2025 yearly average. These flows confirm that despite macro shocks, BTC increasingly appears to be perceived as a safe-haven asset by institutional market participants.

The best day was September 10 with +$741 million in net inflows, likely driven by anticipation of the Fed’s monetary pivot. The worst was September 26, with -$418 million in outflows amid strong uncertainty related to budget talks and the risk of a shutdown.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum spot ETFs also show a positive but much more modest balance: +$286 million over the month. While August suggested Ether would benefit from renewed institutional interest, we can nevertheless see that appetite was curtailed by the broader macro environment and probably also by profit-taking after ETH’s strong performance.

The best day came on September 29, with a monthly record of +$547 million, signaling a strong late-month pickup in interest, perhaps linked to cross-market arbitrage versus gold’s rally and the Fed’s more accommodative tone. The weakest session was September 5, with -$447 million in net outflows, a reminder of ETH’s fragile momentum after its exceptional summer.

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DeFi Analysis

Hyperliquid and the DEX Perps War

The DEX Perps sector was completely shaken up in September. All it needed was a spark to trigger the battle we had been anticipating for several weeks, and that spark came from Aster. Unsurprisingly, the impact was significant for existing players, most notably Hyperliquid.

Aster is a Perps DEX on BNB Chain that officially launched on September 17. Backed by a strong “pro-Binance” narrative (BNB Chain, CZ’s support, funding from YZi Labs, and integrations into the ecosystem), the ASTER token surged by more than +2200% in just one week.

But that’s not all. Aster claimed completely staggering activity metrics: up to several tens of billions of dollars in daily trading volume, and revenues that would supposedly even surpass Circle. Figures like these go far beyond Hyperliquid’s records and appear highly questionable.

As we mentioned in an Alpha Feed report: Aster’s metrics are clearly inflated and unverifiable, as trades are executed via an off-chain API rather than a true on-chain order book, contrary to what its documentation suggests.

Even so, Aster’s impact was undeniable in September’s volumes. In just two weeks of existence, the protocol generated nearly $366 billion in trading volume, more than any other perps DEX this month.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid remained solid at around $275 billion, but its dominance was mechanically reduced. Before Aster’s arrival, it captured more than 50% of sector volumes; by the end of the month, its share had fallen to under 20%. This was not due to an absolute collapse in Hyperliquid’s activity, but rather because Aster suddenly expanded the size of the overall pie.

→ For a deeper dive, read our full analysis of the DEX Perps War and how to benefit from it:

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Fluid (FLUID)

In September, Fluid crossed the symbolic threshold of $4 billion in TVL, up from just over $3 billion at the end of August. This +33% growth was driven by two main factors:

• The consolidation of Ethereum as the main hub of activity (nearly 70% of TVL), with most volumes concentrated on stablecoin pairs.
• The arrival of Plasma, where Fluid’s TVL already reached $1.13 billion in less than a week after launch.

The link with Plasma is no coincidence: Fluid has now become the second-largest DEX on Ethereum by volume and the leader on stablecoin pairs. The protocol has showcased its full potential in this asset class in particular, and it seems only natural for it to integrate into a blockchain whose core value proposition revolves around stablecoins.

On the volume front, Fluid is now the third-largest DEX over 30 days (about $10.5 billion), behind Uniswap and PancakeSwap. In terms of revenues, the protocol generated $1.35 million in September (still low compared to peers) but enough to annualize to around $17 million, offsetting its incentive programs.

At the time of writing, FLUID’s market cap stands at around $476 million, still far behind PancakeSwap ($4.91 billion), Uniswap ($917 million), or even Aerodrome ($1 billion).

→ For more, check out our full presentation on Fluid:

Plasma (XPL)

September saw the explosive debut of a new player in the DeFi ecosystem: Plasma, a Layer 1 chain built specifically for stablecoins and backed by figures close to Tether, including Paolo Ardoino and Bitfinex.

Officially launched on September 25, Plasma quickly established itself as a central hub in DeFi. The network already boasted over $2 billion in deposits at launch, thanks to partnerships with Binance Earn, Maple Finance, and EtherFi. But the growth was nothing short of spectacular: within just one week, TVL surged to $8.7 billion, propelling Plasma straight into the top 10 blockchains by TVL.

Breaking it down, the ecosystem has been fueled by heavyweight integrations:

• Aave accounts for $6.6 billion in deposits, making Plasma its second-largest chain after Ethereum.
• Fluid has also found a growth engine there, with $1.13 billion, more than a quarter of its total TVL.
• Euler followed suit, surpassing $690 million on Plasma, representing more than 20% of its global TVL.

It’s also worth noting that Plasma distributed a massive XPL airdrop to all users who participated in the pre-deposit phase. Each participant received the equivalent of $10,000 worth of XPL at launch, even those who had deposited as little as one dollar.

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Aave (AAVE)

September confirmed Aave’s undisputed dominance in DeFi. With over $72 billion in TVL as of September 30, the protocol remains the absolute market leader and hit a symbolic milestone: becoming the first DeFi protocol to surpass $1 billion in deposits across six different blockchains.

While Ethereum remains Aave’s backbone with more than $56 billion deposited (around 80% of the total), the real headline was Plasma. Launched on September 25, the new “pro-stablecoin” Layer 1 became, in just a few days, Aave’s second-largest chain with $6.6 billion in TVL.

Demand for Aave’s USDT and USDe markets on Plasma was immediate: the $1 billion caps on USDe were filled within hours. This represents not only Aave’s fastest-ever growth on a new chain, but arguably the fastest for any DeFi protocol.

At the same time, Aave rolled out several product and ecosystem developments in September: the integration of limit orders via CoWSwap, the listing of its GHO stablecoin on Gate, and partnerships with institutional players such as NasdaqBTCS and Galaxy, which now rely on Aave for credit solutions.

On the financial side, Aave crossed $250 million in cumulative revenues, with an annualized revenue run-rate of around $160 million, confirming the resilience of its business model despite intensifying competition in the lending sector.

→ Check out our full report on lending in H1 2025:

Ethena (ENA)

Ethena’s TVL grew from $12.5 billion at the start of September to $14.6 billion by month-end, a nearly +17% increase. This momentum was driven by the rapid expansion of USDe and USDtb, which together now represent around $16 billion in outstanding supply.

One major catalyst was Ethena’s arrival on Plasma, where the protocol already surpassed $1 billion in deposits within just a few days. At the same time, the market size of Ethena’s PTs on Pendle reached $8.7 billion, tripling in four months and highlighting strong demand for yield strategies structured around USDe.

Beyond on-chain metrics, September was marked by a string of positive developments. On the DeFi side: the integration of USDe and sUSDe on Avalanche, cross-chain compatibility via LayerZero, and adoption across Aave, Morpho, Fluid, and Euler through Arbitrum’s DRIP program.

On the centralized side: Binance listed USDe as trading collateral, attracting more than $3 billion in deposits within a week. Additional listings followed on Kraken (US), Coinone (South Korea), and OKX (ENA token).

Finally, Ethena advanced its Stablecoin-as-a-Service strategy with the launch of USDm in partnership with MegaETH, as well as suiUSDe and USDi on Sui. These initiatives underscore Ethena’s ambition to evolve beyond a single stablecoin and position itself as the standardized infrastructure for dollar tokenization in crypto.

→ Discover our in-depth report on Ethena, its ecosystem, and its partners:

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Polymarket vs Kalshi and the Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are steadily returning to the spotlight and could well become one of the key narratives for the end of 2025. Long seen as the sector’s undisputed leader, Polymarket is now facing serious competition from Kalshi, a US-regulated platform operating under a CFTC license.

In September, Kalshi took the lead in notional volume, recording $2.86 billion traded compared to $1.44 billion for Polymarket. The momentum has shifted: Kalshi now holds around 57% market share, while Polymarket has dropped to 40%.

As we highlighted earlier with DEX Perps and Hyperliquid, when a market leader is challenged, the entire sector often enters a phase that becomes especially interesting for investors. It is typically during these times that new entrants emerge, competing for liquidity and creating unique opportunities, particularly through airdrop farming.

Already, a new wave of challengers is starting to form, including Limitless, Myriad, and a few others. Together, they represent only about 3% of the market for now, but they are riding the current wave of excitement. More are likely to appear in the coming months, reinforcing the view that prediction markets could become the next major narrative to watch before the broader market catches on.

ByBit is the official sponsor of our monthly market report. If you would like to create an account on ByBit EU (a 100% regulated platform in Europe), we invite you to use our partner link.

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ByBit Corner

In this report, we remind you that our partner link allows you to sign up on Bybit EU, a platform now 100% regulated in Europe. However, the news we share here concerns Bybit as a whole, which has become a central player in several major market dynamics.

In September, one of the key highlights was the rise of the so-called “DEX Perps War.” On this front, Bybit is actively supporting ApeX, a multi-chain perpetuals DEX compatible with Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum, BNB Chain, and of course, Mantle.

Bybit’s support for ApeX is not new. Back in December 2022, Bybit’s CEO, Ben Zhou, had already shared several tweets highlighting the partnership between the two entities. However, this took on a new dimension this month with the announcement of a deeper collaboration between ApeX and Mantle, Bybit’s associated blockchain.

Following this announcement and Ben Zhou’s repost, the APEX token surged from around $0.5 to over $2.5 in just a few days. It’s also worth noting that ApeX launched a campaign called Ape Season 1, introducing a points and rewards system to further stimulate activity.

Beyond DEX perps, Bybit also stands out with its deeper integration with Mantle. The platform now offers multiple utilities for the MNT token, the core of its ecosystem: trading fee discounts, VIP perks, Earn programs, and even the Bybit Card.

To support this expansion, a community campaign called MNT Max Out Szn was launched, offering up to 50,000 MNT in rewards to users who share their best strategies around MNT, its utilities, and its integrations on Bybit.

→ For more insights, check out our full presentation of Mantle (MNT):

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OAK Research launches its V2

On Monday, September 29, 2025, we officially rolled out the V2 of the OAK Research platform. This new milestone marks the launch of our Premium offer, designed with a simple mission in mind: to give you the best tool to access the information that truly matters and make better investment decisions in crypto.

The market has changed profoundly in recent months: opportunities still exist, but they are rarer and more complex to identify. At the same time, the information landscape is saturated with low-value content that clouds understanding more than it clarifies.

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• Premium Analyses: exclusive formats like Opinion, where our contributors share their personal convictions, their reading of market trends, and the best opportunities they identify.

Launching a Premium offer also means making a commitment to you, and we are ready to uphold it to fulfill our mission.

To celebrate this launch, enjoy -25% until next Monday with the code OAK4EVER. Discover the Premium offer now!