Update on our long-term Bitcoin (BTC) scenario: is the correction wave over?
Bitcoin (BTC)
Spot ETFs in cryptos: review of 2024 and forecasts for 2025
Published onUpdated on
Spot ETFs in the United States catalyzed the cryptocurrency market's growth in 2024, providing institutional investors with a regulated investment path for Bitcoin-4.14% (BTC) and Ethereum-4.40% (ETH). This article reviews the state of spot ETFs in 2024 and offers insights into their potential trajectory in 2025.
Foreword: This article is partly based on our year-end 2024 report on the cryptocurrency market. We invite you to consult it free of charge or to obtain a physical version to support our work.
→ Also find our market report on Bitcoin-4.14% (BTC) in 2024 :
Loading post...
Bitcoin Spot ETFs in 2024
The year 2024 will be remembered as a historic milestone for cryptocurrencies, marked by the approval of the first Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States. This approval, nearly a decade after the Winklevoss twins' initial application, represented a major turning point for Bitcoin's institutional adoption, offering regulated products for investors seeking direct BTC exposure through traditional financial instruments.
On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved the launch of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs: GBTC (Grayscale), ARKB (21Shares & ARK Invest), IBIT (BlackRock), BITB (Bitwise), HODL (VanEck), BTCW (WisdomTree), BTCO (Invesco & Galaxy), FBTC (Fidelity), BRRR (Valkyrie), and EZBTC (Franklin Templeton).
The launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs was a resounding success, marking the best-ever ETF launch in the history of asset management giants BlackRock and Fidelity, which collectively manage thousands of products. BlackRock’s IBIT quickly became the market leader, amassing nearly 500,000 BTC under management-equivalent to a $48 billion valuation as of December 4, surpassing BlackRock's own Gold ETF, which currently holds $32.9 billion.
By the end of 2024, Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeded the symbolic threshold of $100 billion in assets under management (AUM). Collectively, these ETFs hold 1.12 million BTC, representing 5.6% of the circulating supply. This growth did not start from scratch; the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (a product launched by Grayscale in 2013 and converted to an ETF this year) already accounted for 620,000 BTC, or $28 billion, as of January 10. Nonetheless, this reflects an 80% increase in BTC holdings and a 292% surge in AUM valuation.
The rise of ETFs created massive demand for Bitcoin, exerting significant upward pressure on the market and supporting its price during certain periods. After a relatively quiet phase between May and September, Bitcoin spot ETF flows reached historically high levels. On November 7, 2024, the day after Donald Trump’s election, a record-breaking $1.37 billion in net flows was recorded, with $1.1 billion directed solely to BlackRock’s IBIT.
November 2024 was a month of records, with net inflows reaching $6.4 billion, following an already exceptional $5.4 billion in October. One striking observation is how these massive purchases have absorbed more circulating BTC, reducing the available supply on exchanges to a five-year low of 2.5 million units.
Ethereum Spot ETFs
Following the success of Bitcoin spot ETFs and a market returning to all-time highs, attention naturally turned to Ethereum (ETH), the next logical candidate for institutional adoption. However, the SEC’s ongoing regulatory battle with the crypto industry, particularly over the classification of certain cryptocurrencies as securities, dampened initial hopes for an Ethereum-4.40% spot ETF.
Nevertheless, on May 20, 2024, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart revised their Ethereum spot ETF approval odds from 25% to 75%. Just three days later, on May 23, 2024, the SEC announced its approval of the first Ethereum spot ETFs.
Launched in July 2024, these new financial products initially garnered palpable enthusiasm but failed to replicate Bitcoin ETFs’ blockbuster success. While Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to attract billions, Ethereum spot ETFs had a slower start, hindered by the underwhelming performance of Grayscale’s ETHE fund (similar to Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, which was converted into a Bitcoin ETF).
One of the main reasons for this sluggish start was Ethereum’s lackluster price performance in 2024, which paled in comparison to Bitcoin’s remarkable gains. This relative stagnation dampened institutional interest, even as Bitcoin continued to experience massive inflows. Additionally, large fund outflows from Grayscale’s ETHE accentuated perceptions of weakness, weighing on the attractiveness of Ethereum spot ETFs.
Despite the rocky start, a resurgence in confidence emerged toward the year’s end. By early November, Ethereum spot ETFs finally posted positive net inflows. Improved ETH price performance and growing optimism about a potential altseason sparked increasing demand for Ethereum spot ETFs, a trend likely to continue if the market favors the optimists.
As of late 2024, Ethereum spot ETFs have generated a total volume of $34 billion and positive net inflows, with eight out of nine ETFs in the green. Total assets under management (AUM) surpassed $11.5 billion, up 29.5% from their July 23 launch. While this is a significant achievement, AUM had fallen to $5.7 billion between September and November due to large sell-offs in Grayscale’s ETF.
While Ethereum spot ETFs have yet to reach their full potential, they could play a pivotal role in broadening institutional adoption of Ethereum. Their future performance will largely depend on the continuation of the bull market, a sustained altseason, and Ethereum’s ability to compete with emerging blockchains like Solana-7.19%. As Ethereum’s ecosystem continues to expand with technological advances like the Dencun and Pectra upgrades, these ETFs could experience a second wind.
→ Also find our market report on Layer 1 in 2024 :
Loading post...
Could Other Crypto ETFs Emerge in 2025?
While 2024 will be remembered for the historic approval of Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum spot ETFs appear to have further opened the institutional gateway, paving the way for other cryptocurrencies. With the Trump administration perceived as more crypto-friendly, the climate seems ripe for the emergence of new ETFs, some of which are already in the pipeline.
Naturally, speculation is mounting over which assets might be next to benefit from an ETF. Among the most-discussed candidates are Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), and XRP.
Traditional finance tends to favor cryptocurrencies with a long track record, which could benefit LTC and XRP-4.43%. Both have been the subject of ETF spot applications by Canary Capital at the end of 2024. However, daily trading volumes for LTC do not indicate significant investor interest, a critical factor for ETF issuers who earn revenue from transaction fees.
It’s worth noting that asset managers and ETF issuers are primarily interested in generating profits from the fees charged on investor transactions, rather than the underlying utility of a cryptocurrency (to a reasonable extent).
For XRP, the prospect of a spot ETF appears much more likely given its daily trading volumes and market capitalization. Canary Capital’s proposal came shortly after a similar application from Bitwise in October 2024. Additionally, 21Shares and WisdomTree have filed applications for an XRP Trust, mirroring Grayscale’s existing offerings.
Meanwhile, Solana (SOL) has the credentials to be the next candidate for a U.S. spot ETF. Firms like VanEck and Grayscale have already filed applications for a Solana ETF, citing the ecosystem's growth in 2024, investor interest in SOL, and the significant trading volumes generated by this cryptocurrency.
Among other potential developments, the idea of a Dogecoin (DOGE) spot ETF cannot be overlooked. This memecoin, championed by Elon Musk, could attract traditional finance by positioning itself as the "Bitcoin of memecoins," especially after a 2024 dominated by this category of cryptocurrencies. While some analysts remain skeptical about the viability of such a product, firms like 21Shares are seriously considering a DOGE-5.62%-dedicated ETF, betting on the sustained interest of retail investors in memecoins.
Although the SEC’s decisions will ultimately determine whether new ETFs are approved in 2025, the signals are encouraging. Recent initiatives by firms like Canary Capital, VanEck, and Grayscale underscore the desire to diversify offerings beyond traditional assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, it may take a move by BlackRock-whose approval chances are near 100%-to pave the way for a new crypto ETF.
Thematic Crypto ETFs in 2025?
For some, even the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have yet to reach sufficient maturity to warrant standalone investment products. As a result, 2025 could witness the rise of multi-asset or thematic ETFs, offering investors diversified exposure. Two key players, Grayscale and Bitwise, appear poised to lead this next wave of innovation.
Building on its Bitcoin and Ethereum Trust conversions, Grayscale is exploring ways to capitalize on its existing products. Rumors suggest the asset manager is considering converting its Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GLDC) into a multi-crypto ETF. This over-the-counter (OTC) fund tracks the CoinDesk Large Cap Select Index, which includes assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Avalanche.
With a potentially favorable regulatory environment under the Trump administration, Grayscale could find ideal conditions to pursue this strategy. If successful, the firm could also launch ETFs for other digital assets it manages, such as Aave, Chainlink, Filecoin, or Basic Attention Token-though it’s worth noting that not all of Grayscale’s products feature particularly relevant assets.
Similarly, Bitwise Asset Management is working to convert its Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund (BITW) into an ETF. This fund tracks the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, rebalanced monthly, and could become a flagship product for investors seeking broad market exposure. With a current weighting of 70.1% for Bitcoin and 16.2% for Ethereum, followed by XRP, Solana, and Cardano, this ETF could offer a balanced approach to altcoin exposure.
Notably, the index still includes assets like Polkadot, Bitcoin Cash, NEAR Protocol, and Chainlink-despite their departure from the top 10-while excluding BNB, Dogecoin, and Tron, which remain in the top 10.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, 2025 promises to be a pivotal year for crypto ETFs. Whether through the approval of single-asset ETFs like Solana or XRP, or the rise of thematic, multi-asset ETFs, the intersection of traditional finance and cryptocurrency is poised to deepen. As ever, the key lies in balancing regulatory approval, market demand, and the continued growth of the underlying crypto ecosystems.
