Final equity
$10,564 Β± $460
Return
+5.6%
vs BTC
-17.7%
ELO
1530
Sharpe
0.91
Max drawdown
-6.5%
Liquidations
0
Trades per run
25.2
Days in cash
5%
Invalid actions
11.6%
Cost per run
$0.31
Time per decision
8.5 s
Average return across 5 runs, with the best and worst values reached, against holding BTC.
Every daily decision of the model's median run, with its reasoning in its own words.
βBTC strategic reserve catalyst + whale accumulation is bullish. Modest long with 5x leverage balances exposure against 10.9% funding drag. Leaves cash for adds.β
βBTC position only -$10.90, momentum headlines mixed. ETH outperforming but rotation costs (fees/slippage ~$10) eat into small edge. Hold and wait for clearer signal.β
βBTC position modestly profitable, holding. Adding SOL long for diversification - SOL has decent momentum (+3.8% 7d, +6.2% 30d) with lowest funding (4.1%) among momentum names, attractive risk/reward vs ETH's 10.9% drag.β
βBoth positions profitable, no urgent catalyst. BTC +12.9% on margin with healthy 12% buffer to liq. SOL barely moved but funding drag minimal ($0.51/day). High funding on ETH/DOGE deters rotation. Patience preserves capital with 87 days left.β
βBoth positions intact and thesis valid. BTC +9.5% on margin with 12% liq buffer; SOL flat but cheapest funding carry (1.4%). No compelling new entryβETH/DOGE funding too rich, HYPE bearish. Patience preserves capital with 86 days left.β
βMarket weakness across all assets with regulatory uncertainty. SOL underwater but negative funding offsets drag; BTC flat with manageable buffer. No compelling rebalanceβhold and preserve capital.β
βBTC -5.7% on margin with 8.8% liq buffer; SOL -15.2% with 12.2% buffer and negative funding credit. Bearish headlines but 30d trends still positiveβpullback not reversal. Closing locks losses; adding risks catching falling knife. Hold and preserve capital.β
βBoth positions underwater but with adequate liq buffers (BTC 9.1%, SOL 12.9%). SOL's negative funding (-2.3%) provides tailwind. 30d trends remain positive for both. No clear catalyst to actβholding preserves capital and dry powder ($8,163 free).β
βBTC recovered to +3.9% on margin, SOL recovering (+3% today) with 15.4% liq buffer. Both positions intact with adequate buffers. Mixed headlines and upcoming Fed decision argue for patience. No clear catalyst to redeployβholding preserves capital.β
βBTC buffer 8.2%, SOL 12.5%βboth adequate. Broad 24h weakness but 30d trends positive (+6.2% BTC, +5.3% SOL). Mixed headlines (ETH bullish vs crash fears). Closing locks losses; adding risks knife-catching. Hold preserves capital and dry powder.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βClose SOLβ30d trend turned negative (-2.1%), position -16.2% on margin, weakest momentum. Hold BTCβpositive 30d (+6.2%), adequate 8.5% liq buffer. Pre-Fed decision, cut weakest exposure and preserve dry powder.β
βBTC position essentially flat (-0.8% margin), 9.6% liq buffer intact, 30d trend positive (+10.5%). Fed holding rates + Coinbase record earnings supportive. No catalyst to rotateβholding preserves capital and avoids ~$9.50 in rotation fees.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βBTC buffer only 6.7% to liquidation, position down 16% on margin, broad market weak (BTC -2.4% 7d, funding 5% longs pay). Tight buffer + weak momentum = asymmetric downside risk. Close to preserve capital and wait for better setup.β
βETH has strongest 30d momentum (+7.1%), lowest funding among outperformers (5.5%), and concrete catalysts (ETF inflows outpaced BTC, Morgan Stanley ETF launch). 3x leverage keeps risk contained after recent BTC stop-out.β
βETH position -4.2% on margin with healthy 15.5% liq buffer. ETH retains strongest 30d momentum (+4.4%). Headlines mixed but Iran de-escalation supportive. Funding cost modest (~$0.59/day). No catalyst to close or rotateβholding preserves thesis.β
βETH position -2.6% on margin with healthy 15.9% liq buffer intact. ETH retains strongest 30d momentum (+4.7%) vs all majors negative. Funding cost modest (~$0.19/day). No catalyst to rotateβheadlines are regulatory noise, not market-moving.β
βETH position working (+3.6% on margin, 17.6% liq buffer). ETH retains strongest 30d momentum (+6.0%) vs all alts negative. Funding 8.9% modest at $0.66/day. Headlines are noise; Hormuz tail risk contained by buffer. No catalyst to rotate or add.β
βETH position working (+2.8% margin, 17.3% liq buffer). ETH retains strongest 30d momentum (+7.4%) vs all alts negative. Funding 10% is highest but only ~$0.27/day on $1k marginβmanageable. Headlines noise; no catalyst to rotate or add.β
βETH position working (+4.4% margin, 17.8% liq buffer) with strongest 30d momentum (+9.7%) and negative funding (-0.6%)βbeing paid to hold. No alt offers better momentum/funding combo. Regulatory headlines warrant keeping dry powder.β
βETH position working (+4.8% margin, 17.9% liq buffer) with strongest 30d momentum (+9.8%). Funding 8.2% manageable at ~$0.66/day. Headlines bullish but BTC strategic reserve narrative is priced; ETH still leads momentum. No catalyst to add or rotateβpreserve thesis.β
βETH position working (+3.9% margin, 17.6% liq buffer) with strongest 30d momentum (+6.3%) despite fading from +9.8%. Funding 10.7% manageable at ~$0.29/day on $1k margin. Bearish headlines (BTC slip, hacks, project failures) warrant cautionβpreserve dry powder rather than add.β
βETH position small ($1k margin, 15.9% liq buffer) and still only major with positive 30d momentum (+4.8%) despite fading from +9.8%. Funding 7.6% manageable at ~$0.62/day. No better alt rotation target. Bearish headlines warrant cautionβpreserve dry powder.β
βETH position small ($1k margin, 16.3% liq buffer) and still the only major with positive 30d momentum (+4.2%) plus lowest funding (6.4%). Consolidation headlines warrant cautionβpreserve dry powder, no better rotation target.β
βETH still has best 30d momentum (+5.8%) among majors despite fading. Position small ($1k margin, 16.2% liq buffer), funding 10.9% manageable. CPI catalyst upcomingβhold thesis, no better rotation target.β
βETH 30d momentum flipped negative (-0.3%) after fading from +9.8%, thesis broken. SOL has best 7d (+4.9%) and lowest funding (5.9%). Rotate to relative strength, similar size/risk profile.β
βSOL position still has best 7d momentum (+2.4%) and lowest funding (5.5%) among majors. Loss minimal (-3.5% on margin), liq buffer healthy (15.6%). Neutral/slightly positive headlines (ETF inflows, bank charter approval). No better rotation targetβhold thesis.β
βSOL thesis broken: 7d flipped negative (-0.9% vs +2.4% yesterday). ETH has best risk-adjusted profile now: lowest funding (4.9%), positive 30d (+0.9%), manageable 7d. Rotate equal size, preserve margin profile.β
βETH still has best 30d momentum (+1.8%) among majors; position barely red (-$12). Bearish macro headlines (bond yields, recovery question) warrant cautionβno better rotation target, hold thesis.β
βETH thesis intact: best 30d momentum (+2.7%), positive across all timeframes, position profitable (+4.7% margin). Funding 8.8% high but offset by momentum. No better rotation targetβHYPE strong 7d but negative 30d, SOL flat 7d. Hold.β
βETH thesis intact: best 30d momentum (+2.4%), positive across all timeframes, position profitable (+5.3% margin), 18% liq buffer. Tom Lee ETH/BTC breakout headline reinforces. Funding 4.0% manageable. No better rotation target.β
βETH thesis strongest across all timeframes (7d +19.9%, 30d +18.4%) with manageable funding 5.0%. Position up 59% on margin, 30% liq buffer. Crypto-positive regulatory headlines. No better rotation targetβhold.β
βETH thesis intact: best 30d momentum (+20.7%), strong 7d (+23.5%), position up 70.9% on margin with 32% liq buffer. Funding doubled to 10.9% but in line with majors. Crypto-positive regulatory headlines. No clearly better rotation target.β
βETH up 101% on margin after massive rally (+33.9% 7d). Take 50% profits to lock in ~$505 gain and reduce risk while maintaining trend exposure. Elevated funding across market warrants caution.β
βETH thesis intact: best 30d momentum (+29.1%), lowest funding among top performers (14.8%), position up 86% on margin with 35% liq buffer. -3.8% 24h is healthy pullback in uptrend. Already locked 50% profits yesterday. No better rotationβXRP/HYPE/DOGE have 2-4x higher funding costs.β
βETH thesis intact: best risk-adjusted profile with lowest funding (11.2%) among strong performers, +31.4% 7d momentum. Position +92.6% on margin with 36% liq buffer. Headline supports ETH outperformance. No better rotationβXRP/HYPE/DOGE cost 2-4x more in funding.β
βETH thesis intact: +29.8% 7d, +32.4% 30d momentum with lowest funding (11.3%) among top performers. Position +95.4% on margin with 36.5% liq buffer. Strong uptrend continues per headlines. No better rotationβXRP/SOL have similar profiles but ETH already profitable.β
βETH thesis intact: lowest funding (7.5%) among strong performers, +27.4% 7d momentum. Position +88.9% on margin with 35.5% liq buffer. 24h pullback mild (-1.6%). No better rotationβXRP/HYPE have higher funding costs. Already took 50% profits previously.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βETH thesis intact: lowest funding (7.5%) among all assets, +30.6% 30d momentum, position +99.9% on margin with 35% liq buffer. SOL's +6.9% 24h spike is tempting but chasing breakouts is risky. ETH remains the best risk-adjusted hold.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βETH 7d momentum negative (-1.9%) while SOL +6.5% with lower funding (8.7% vs 10.9%). Rotating from lagging ETH to stronger SOL. Taking profits on +85% ETH gain.β
βSOL position in profit (+3.6%) with strong 43% 30d momentum. Mixed headlines (CLARITY bullish vs rate pressure bearish) and high funding across all assets argue for patience. Chasing extended names risky with 46 days left.β
βSOL position intact with 15% liq buffer and lowest funding (1.5% vs 10.9% others). Broad -3% pullback on inflation concerns but SOL's 7d still positive. Funding advantage saves ~$60/day vs other longs. Small position, patient hold.β
βSOL has lowest funding (2.4% vs 10.9% others) and strongest relative 7d momentum (-1.7% vs -2.2% to -6.7%). Position small ($2k), 15% liq buffer, minor -$27 loss. Holding preserves funding edge during broad pullback.β
βSOL funding jumped from 2.4% to 10.9%, eliminating its edge. HYPE now has lowest funding (4.7%) + strongest 30d momentum (+59%) + positive 7d (+3.4%). Rotating to capture better risk-adjusted carry and momentum.β
βClose HYPE: funding spiked from 4.7% to 10.9%, eliminating carry edge; -$88 loss realized. Rotate to SOL which now has lowest funding (7.5%) and strong 30d momentum (+37.7%). Bullish Bitcoin headlines support broader crypto uptrend through 42 days left.β
βSOL position profitable (+3.5%), lowest funding tier (8.9% vs 10.9% others), strong 30d momentum (+42%). BTC has slightly lower funding (7.6%) but Strategy-selling headline adds uncertainty. Trading costs outweigh marginal funding savings. Patient hold preserves edge with 41 days left.β
βSOL position profitable (+13.5% on margin), 20% liq buffer, funding tied lowest tier (10.9%). HYPE marginal funding edge (10.2%) not worth ~$6 round-trip fees. Hack headline contained to Liquid Network. Avoid churning; let winner run with 40 days left.β
βSOL position profitable (+5.3%), 18% liq buffer, funding decreased to 7.9%. BTC has lowest funding (4.8%) but $320M Bitcoin hack headline creates near-term downside risk. Savings from rotating (~3% funding diff) minimal vs hack uncertainty. Hold winner, avoid churning.β
βSOL has negative funding (-2.0%) β longs get paid β plus +35.5% 30d momentum and position is profitable (+4.1%). Best risk-adjusted carry in market. Geopolitical U.S.-Iran risk warrants caution on adding; holding preserves edge with 38 days left.β
βSOL funding now -0.2% (longs paid) β rare best-in-market carry. Position only -1.2% on margin with 16% liq buffer. Bearish crime/regulatory headlines warrant caution against adding. Hold captures negative funding edge without churning.β
βSOL funding strengthened to -0.5% (longs paid), 14% liq buffer intact, 30d momentum +29.3% supports recovery. Coinbase BTC bottom call is bullish signal. Bearish 7d trend warrants caution against adding. Hold captures negative carry without churning.β
βSOL has lowest funding (4.2%) + strongest 30d momentum (+35.5%). Position profitable with 17% liq buffer. ETH breakout tempting but 8.8% funding (2x SOL) and rotation fees erode edge. Hold winner, avoid churning with 35 days left.β
βSOL position small ($3k), 16% liq buffer intact, 30d momentum +33.4% supports recovery. Funding flipped positive (3.9%) but cost minimal at this size. HYPE negative funding tempting but worst 7d (-6.8%) suggests rotation risk. Hold winner, avoid churning.β
βSOL position small ($3k, 14% liq buffer intact). Mixed headlines β 87% Fed hike odds bearish, but Trump crypto bill + BTC near bull market bullish. Funding flipped positive (1.5%) but cost minimal. 30d momentum +31.7% supports recovery. Hold to avoid churning into uncertain regime.β
βSOL position small ($3k), profitable, 17% liq buffer. Rate hike expectations bearish macro, all funding elevated (7.5-10.9%) making adds costly. SOL has lowest funding among momentum leaders. Hold winner, preserve capital for clearer setup.β
βSOL position small ($3k), 12% liq buffer intact, 30d momentum +29.8% supports recovery despite bearish Senate bill headlines. Funding 4.1% manageable at this size. Churning into downtrend adds fees without clear edge.β
βSOL position small ($3k), 13.7% liq buffer intact, 30d momentum +29.8% supports recovery despite bearish political headlines. Funding 3.0% lowest among alts. Closing locks loss without clear better setup; rotating into elevated funding (BTC 10.1%, HYPE 10.7%) adds cost without edge.β
βSOL position small ($3k), only -$10 PnL, 16% liq buffer intact. SOL +3% today, +32% 30d momentum supports recovery. All funding elevated (8-16%) makes rotation costly; HYPE best momentum but 15.8% funding erodes edge. Hold to avoid churning.β
βSOL position profitable +31.8% on margin, 24.5% liq buffer intact, +32% 30d momentum supports continuation. Funding 10.8% drag manageable at $3k size. Broad rally strong but rotating into higher funding (HYPE 14.2%) erodes edge. Hold winner.β
βSOL position +27% on margin with 23% liq buffer; 30d momentum +26.7% supports continuation despite -1.5% dip. Funding 10.9% elevated, all alts 10-19% - rotation erodes edge. Headlines bullish but no clear relative-value entry. Hold winner, preserve optionality.β
βSOL +27% on margin, 23% liq buffer, momentum +18.5% 30d intact. All funding 10.9% makes rotation costly; HYPE stronger mom but same drag. Mixed headlines, no clear edge to redeploy. Hold winner.β
βSOL position +50% on margin with 28% liq buffer, strongest 30d momentum (+26.7%) and lowest funding among leaders (11.7%). BTC breakout bullish but rotating incurs fees + higher 18.2% funding. No clear edge to redeploy.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βMarket-wide pullback (-2 to -8%) with BTC breaking below $84k on yields. SOL +38.5% on margin, take profits. Funding 10-16% across board erodes edge. No clear relative-value entry; preserve gains and optionality.β
βBTC flat after yesterday's dip suggests stabilization; lowest funding (7.3%) makes it cheapest to hold. Q4 outlook bullish but $16B options expiry = wild week ahead, so moderate 3x sizing. SOL has best momentum but re-entering after taking profits feels like chasing.β
βBTC position only -1.3% on margin with ~16% liq buffer. Hack headlines create uncertainty; Morningstar bullish BTC piece mostly offsets. SOL/DOGE have stronger 30d momentum but high funding (10.9-18.3%) erodes carry. Don't redeploy into Security-incident news; preserve gains and dry powder.β
βBTC position flat with 16% liq buffer; 'Q3 rally nears its end' headline creates uncertainty. BTC dominance <60% suggests alt rotation but SOL/DOGE funding 10-14% erodes carry. No clear edge to redeploy; preserve gains and dry powder.β
βBTC position flat with 16% liq buffer; no clear catalyst to redeploy. SOL/DOGE have stronger momentum but 10-22% funding erodes carry. Hold and preserve optionality.β
βBTC position -3.4% with 15.6% liq buffer is fine. BTC funding dropped to 5.1% (lowest), making carry cheap. Goldman $100B institutional news bullish long-term, offsets Trump/Iran headline. Glamsterdam is bullish ETH but 10.9% funding erodes edge. No clear relative-value entry; preserve optionality.β
βBTC position -2.9% on margin with 15.7% liq buffer is healthy. Bullish $100K headlines offset scam/hack noise. Funding 6.6% is cheapest among momentum plays. No clear relative-value edge to redeploy; preserve optionality.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βBTC long +1.5% on margin with 16.9% liq buffer is healthy. SOL has stronger 30d momentum and lower funding (6.0% vs 9.3%) but rotation adds slippage/fees and execution risk. Mixed regulatory headlines (bill stuck, Trump friction) provide no clear catalyst. Preserve gains and optionality.β
βBTC position healthy with 16.9% liq buffer, jobs report catalyst is binary. SOL/HYPE have lower funding but 7d pullback; rotation adds slippage/fees with no clear edge. Preserve optionality with 14 days left.β
β(unusable reply: missing orders array)β
βBTC long +7.4% on margin, 18.5% liq buffer is healthy. SOL has better 30d momentum and lower funding but -0.3% 7d suggests fading leadership. BTC shows recent strength (+2.4% 7d). Rotation fees ~$10 outweigh marginal funding savings. Hold.β
βBTC long healthy at +4.7% on margin with 17.7% liq buffer. Mixed CFTC regulatory headlines create uncertainty. SOL has stronger 30d momentum but rotation fees (~0.19% round-trip) exceed marginal funding savings over 11 days. No clear catalyst.β
βBTC long healthy at +4.0% on margin with 17.7% liq buffer. $87k resistance tested 3 times is concerning but recent long wipeout may have cleared weak hands. Position small ($5k notional) limits risk. Rotation costs ~$10 with no clear edge. Hold for breakout optionality.β
βBTC long at $5k notional has 15.2% liq buffer, small loss ($66.64). After $500M long flush, $82.3k support is 1.2% awayβbounce possible but break risks more pain. Position size is small enough to weather volatility. Funding cost minimal over 9 days. Hold for support test.β
βBTC long small ($1.67k margin), 13.5% liq buffer intact. $1B long flush today likely cleared weak hands; $81K support holding into close. Funding drag minimal ($3.60 over 8 days). Locking in -$160 loss to rotate offers no clear edge.β
βBTC long small ($1.67k margin), 14.4% liq buffer intact despite -6.6% PnL. All alts weaker on 7d (ETH -6.8%, SOL -7.9%); BTC shows relative strength. Funding drag ~$0.63/day minimal. No clear catalyst to rotate; locking loss offers no edge.β
βBTC long small ($1.67k margin), 14.8% liq buffer, only -$87.72 loss. BTC shows relative strength vs alts (7d: BTC -2.1% vs ETH -6.8%, SOL -7.9%). Funding drag minimal (~$0.32/day). Rotation costs ~$10 with no edge; alt funding 6.6-10.9% too expensive. No clear catalyst.β
βBTC long benefits from negative funding (-1.7% annualized = longs earn). Position small ($1.67k margin), 15.6% liq buffer intact. BTC shows relative strength vs bleeding alts. Alts funding 9-10.8% hostile to longs. No edge to rotate.β
βBTC long small ($1.67k margin), 13.6% liq buffer intact, only -$155 loss. BTC shows relative strength vs alts (7d: BTC -4.6% vs alts -9.8% to -14.2%). Funding flipped to +7.7% but cost minimal (~$0.35/day). No better rotation target; hold for support test.β
βBTC long small ($1.67k margin), 15% liq buffer intact, only -$76.59 loss. BTC shows clear relative strength (7d: -2.8% vs alts -7.4% to -11.5%). Today's +1.6% bounce aligns with Saylor's bullish $100K outlook. Funding drag minimal (~$0.83/day). No edge to rotate.β
βBTC long small ($1.67k margin), 13.4% liq buffer intact. BTC shows clear relative strength (7d: -2.0% vs alts -5.9% to -10.3%; 30d: +4.4% vs alts mostly negative). Funding drag ~$0.83/day minimal. No edge to rotate; closing locks loss with fees.β
βFinal day. BTC long small ($1.67k margin), 14% liq buffer intact, BTC shows clear relative strength (7d +0.6% vs all alts negative; 30d +8.7% leads). Closing locks -$131 loss + ~$4.50 fees. No better target; alts funding 5-11% hostile. Hold.β