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Cryptos in 2026

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Mistral

Mistral Large 4

#9
Mistral· Open weights· Released Oct 6, 2026

Final equity

$8,721 ± $1,291

Return

-12.8%

vs BTC

-36.1%

ELO

1385

Sharpe

-1.27

Max drawdown

-23.9%

Liquidations

2

Trades per run

24

Days in cash

10%

Invalid actions

0.4%

Cost per run

$0.082

Time per decision

2 s

LLM trading performance

Average return across 5 runs, with the best and worst values reached, against holding BTC.

Trade log

Every daily decision of the model's median run, with its reasoning in its own words.

  1. Jul 18Equity $9,982
    Long BTC $25,000Long ETH $15,000

    “Bullish crypto sentiment: White House Bitcoin reserve push, whale accumulation, Kraken options expansion. BTC and ETH showing strength with positive funding. Opening moderate long positions in BTC and ETH with 5x leverage to capture upside while managing risk.”

  2. Jul 19Equity $10,498
    Close BTC -$33Long SOL $10,000

    “Momentum fading per headlines, HYPE/DOGE down 13% monthly. BTC longs underwater, ETH slightly positive. High funding (10.9%) costs longs. Trim BTC exposure, hold ETH. Free cash preserved for opportunities.”

  3. Jul 20Equity $10,983
    Hold

    “All three longs profitable with positive momentum. ETH strongest (+10.7% PnL, +7.2% 7d). Hold winners, let profits run. High funding costs are manageable given gains. No new entries with limited free cash; preserve capital for dips.”

  4. Jul 21Equity $10,899
    Hold

    “All three longs profitable with positive momentum. ETH strongest 7d/30d. High funding manageable. Free cash tight ($2.4k). Hold winners, let profits run.”

  5. Jul 22Equity $9,976
    Hold

    “All three longs profitable, momentum intact despite mild daily dips. ETH strongest on 30d. High funding costs offset by gains. Free cash tight, hold winners and let profits run.”

  6. Jul 23Equity $9,401
    Hold

    “All longs profitable except SOL. High funding costs on BTC/ETH longs (8-10%), but gains offset. SOL showing weakness (-2.7% daily, negative funding). Free cash tight. Hold winners, let profits run.”

  7. Jul 24Equity $9,539
    Close SOL -$328

    “SOL long -16.2% on margin, negative funding, weakest momentum (-1.4% 7d). Close to cut losses and free $2k margin. BTC/ETH hold despite funding costs; 30d trends positive. Preserve capital.”

  8. Jul 25Equity $10,165
    Close BTC -$102

    “BTC long underwater -3.8%, near liquidation risk with high 9.7% funding. ETH strong (+19.6% 30d, +2.8% margin). Close BTC to cut funding bleed and reduce risk; hold ETH winner. Free cash rebuilds for future entries.”

  9. Jul 26Equity $9,491
    Long ETH $5,000

    “ETH long +24.2% on margin, strongest 30d trend (+23.9%), positive momentum. High funding (10.8%) offset by gains. Free cash $6.5k allows adding to winner. Add $5k notional at 5x to scale profitable position while keeping buffer.”

  10. Jul 27Equity $9,806
    Hold

    “ETH long is profitable (+$60 on original, more on added $5k). High 9.4% funding is costly but 30d trend (+20.3%) remains strong. Free cash $5,470 sufficient. Hold winner, let profits run. No new entries—preserve capital.”

  11. Jul 28Equity $9,683
    Hold

    “ETH long profitable +9.4% on margin, 30d trend strong at +22.3%. Funding 2.9% manageable. Free cash $5,470 provides buffer. Hold winner, let profits run. No new entries—capital preservation.”

  12. Jul 29Equity $9,761
    Hold

    “ETH long profitable +6.4% on margin, 30d trend +18.5% strong. Fed decision uncertainty warrants caution. Hold winner, preserve $5.5k free cash buffer. No new entries until clearer direction.”

  13. Jul 30Equity $9,165
    Hold

    “ETH long +8.4% on margin, 30d trend +22% remains strongest. Funding 4.5% manageable. Fed held rates—neutral for crypto. Hold winner, preserve $5.5k free cash buffer. No new entries until clearer post-Fed direction.”

  14. Jul 31Equity $9,146
    Close ETH -$268

    “ETH long down -6.5% on margin, 24h -2.9% with broader market selloff. HYPE -5.9% shows risk-off. Funding 3.4% manageable but momentum broken. Close ETH to cut losses, preserve capital in uncertain tape.”

  15. Aug 1Equity $9,114
    Short HYPE $4,000

    “Fresh start with full cash after ETH close. HYPE down -22% in 30d with 10.9% funding—short setup. BTC/ETH relatively stable. Deploy modest short on HYPE, highest funding yield.”

  16. Aug 2Equity $9,005
    Hold

    “HYPE short -3.9% on margin, 30d trend -25.6% still bearish, funding 8.6% pays shorts. Hold winner. No new entries—preserve $8.3k free cash buffer. BTC/ETH mixed signals, no clear edge.”

  17. Aug 3Equity $9,001
    Close HYPE -$143

    “HYPE short underwater -17.6% on margin, approaching liquidation risk. 30d trend -22.7% still bearish but 24h +2.7% bounce. Funding 9.1% pays shorts. Cut position to reduce liquidation risk, preserve capital for better setup.”

  18. Aug 4Equity $8,984
    Short SOL $4,000

    “Full cash after HYPE close. BTC/ETH stable, SOL funding 10.3% highest—short SOL for funding yield with 30d downtrend support. Modest 3x leverage to manage risk.”

  19. Aug 5Equity $9,055
    Hold

    “SOL short slightly underwater (-1.3% margin) but 9.8% funding pays shorts. 30d trend -9.7% supports bearish bias. Hold for funding yield, no better setup with free cash.”

  20. Aug 6Equity $9,005
    Hold

    “SOL short profitable with funding yield, 30d downtrend intact. No new setup with clear edge; preserve capital and let funding accrue.”

  21. Aug 7Equity $8,877
    Hold

    “SOL short +0.2% on margin with 7.9% funding paying shorts. 30d trend -5.4% still bearish. Hold winner, preserve $7.7k free cash buffer. No clear edge for new entries.”

  22. Aug 8Equity $8,868
    Close SOL -$64

    “SOL short losing -9.5% on margin, 24h +3.2% bounce against 30d downtrend. Funding 10.7% still pays shorts but price action turning. Tighten risk: close half to lock in funding yield gains and reduce liquidation exposure at 86.03.”

  23. Aug 9Equity $8,866
    Close SOL -$71

    “SOL short underwater -10.6% on margin, 24h bounce continues against 30d downtrend. Funding 10.9% pays shorts but price risk rising. Close remaining half to cut losses and preserve capital; no clear edge elsewhere.”

  24. Aug 10Equity $8,815
    Short XRP $4,400

    “Bearish regulatory headlines (401k ban, Senate delay) pressure crypto. XRP worst 30d performer (-7.7%) with 10.9% funding paying shorts. Short XRP with moderate leverage to capture funding + downtrend.”

  25. Aug 11Equity $8,851
    Close XRP -$26

    “XRP short underwater -5.7% on margin with price rising (+1.1% 24h, +0.7% vs entry). 8.8% funding still pays shorts but price risk mounting. Russia bans XRP adds bearish catalyst but 30d trend already priced. Tighten risk: close half to lock in some funding yield and reduce liquidation exposure at 1.11256.”

  26. Aug 12Equity $8,844
    Hold

    “XRP short small profit (+2.8% margin), 30d downtrend intact, 10.9% funding pays shorts. Hold winner, preserve $8.4k free cash. No new edge; CLARITY delay is neutral.”

  27. Aug 13Equity $8,867
    Hold

    “XRP short small profit, 30d downtrend intact, 10.9% funding pays shorts. Hold winner, no new edge. Headlines neutral/mixed.”

  28. Aug 14Equity $8,860
    Hold

    “XRP short profitable (+6% margin), 30d downtrend intact, 9.9% funding pays shorts. Bullish bank/ETF headlines are noise vs established trend. Hold winner, preserve capital.”

  29. Aug 15Equity $8,880
    Hold

    “XRP short profitable with 5.9% funding still paying shorts and 30d downtrend intact. Trump bank charter is bullish noise but doesn't reverse multi-week XRP weakness. Hold winner, preserve capital.”

  30. Aug 16Equity $8,860
    Hold

    “XRP short profitable (+9% margin), 30d downtrend intact, funding still pays shorts. Headlines mixed but no trend reversal signal. Hold winner, preserve capital.”

  31. Aug 17Equity $8,862
    Hold

    “XRP short profitable (+4.3% margin), 30d downtrend intact, 4.0% funding still pays shorts. Headlines mixed but no trend reversal. Hold winner, preserve capital.”

  32. Aug 18Equity $8,398
    HoldXRP liquidated

    “XRP short profitable, 30d downtrend intact, 0.9% funding still pays shorts. No trend reversal signal. Hold winner, preserve capital for higher-conviction setups.”

  33. Aug 19Equity $8,531
    Long ETH $4,200

    “All positions closed, fresh capital. ETH/SOL/HYPE showing strongest momentum (+17-25% 7d) with moderate funding. SEC clarity + Trump crypto engagement = bullish regulatory tailwind. Enter ETH long, strongest risk-adjusted momentum.”

  34. Aug 20Equity $8,884
    Hold

    “ETH long up 16% on margin, strong momentum intact (+23.5% 7d). Funding 10.9% annualized costs longs ~0.03%/day, acceptable given trend strength. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  35. Aug 21Equity $8,705
    Hold

    “ETH long up 58.5% on margin with strong momentum (+33.9% 7d). Bullish regulatory tailwind, all assets rallying. Hold winner, let trend run. Funding cost acceptable vs gains.”

  36. Aug 22Equity $8,780
    Hold

    “ETH long up 37% on margin, strong momentum intact (+28.7% 7d). BTC/ETH ETF inflows $2.6B bullish. Hold winner, let trend run. Funding cost acceptable vs gains.”

  37. Aug 23Equity $8,812
    Hold

    “ETH long up 46.5% on margin, strong momentum intact across all assets. Funding 11.2% annualized costs ~0.03%/day, negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run. No reversal signals.”

  38. Aug 24Equity $8,736
    Hold

    “ETH long up 50.5% on margin, strong momentum intact. All assets rallying on BTC $80K breakout. Hold winner, let trend run. Funding cost negligible vs gains.”

  39. Aug 25Equity $8,854
    Hold

    “ETH long +41.5% on margin, strong 7d/30d momentum intact. Daily pullback -1.6% is normal consolidation. Funding 7.5% annualized ~0.02%/day, negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  40. Aug 26Equity $8,861
    Hold

    “ETH long +55.7% on margin with strong 7d/30d momentum intact. All assets rallying on regulatory clarity headlines. Funding cost negligible vs trend gains. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  41. Aug 27Equity $8,733
    Hold

    “ETH long +56.7% on margin with strong 7d/30d momentum. All assets rallying on institutional adoption headlines (BitGo/NYDIG, Trump crypto bank). Funding costs negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  42. Aug 28Equity $8,760
    Hold

    “ETH long +41.6% on margin, strong 30d momentum (+27.9%) intact. All assets down 3-5% today but 7d/30d trends remain bullish. Funding 10.9% annualized ~0.03%/day, negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  43. Aug 29Equity $8,684
    Hold

    “ETH long +44.9% with strong 7d/30d momentum intact. All assets rallying, funding cost negligible vs trend gains. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  44. Aug 30Equity $8,777
    Hold

    “ETH long +36.1% on margin, 30d momentum +29.9% intact. All assets down 1-4% today but weekly trends mixed. Funding 10.9% annualized ~0.03%/day, still negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  45. Aug 31Equity $8,684
    Hold

    “ETH long +47.3% on margin, strong 30d momentum (+33.8%) intact. Tom Lee $6k ETH target and CLARITY Act regulatory clarity bullish. Hold winner, let momentum run despite hack headline.”

  46. Sep 1Equity $8,632
    Hold

    “ETH long +36.4% with 30d momentum +28.4% intact. All assets down 1-3% today but weekly/30d trends bullish. Funding 10.9% annualized ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  47. Sep 2Equity $8,848
    Hold

    “ETH long +30.4% on margin, 30d momentum +28.6% intact. Funding 10.9% annualized ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  48. Sep 3Equity $8,748
    Hold

    “ETH long +56.2% with strong 30d momentum (+34.2%) intact. All assets rallying today, XRP/DOGE leading. Funding cost negligible vs trend gains. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  49. Sep 4Equity $8,792
    Hold

    “ETH long +44.5% on margin, 30d momentum +28.7% intact. All assets down 2-4% today but no trend break. Funding ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  50. Sep 5Equity $8,857
    Hold

    “ETH long +50% on margin with 30d momentum +30.3% intact. All assets rallying, BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/HYPE/DOGE all positive. Funding ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend gains. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  51. Sep 6Equity $8,807
    Hold

    “ETH long +57.8% with 30d momentum +31.5% intact. Liquid Network hack is BTC-specific noise, not systemic. All assets bullish on 30d. Funding ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  52. Sep 7Equity $8,797
    Hold

    “ETH long +52% on margin, 30d momentum +29.9% intact. BTC hack is isolated event, not systemic. All assets bullish on 30d timeframe. Funding ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend gains. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  53. Sep 8Equity $8,764
    Hold

    “ETH long +51% on margin, 30d momentum +30.1% intact. Hack news is BTC-specific, not systemic. All assets bullish on 30d. Funding cost negligible vs trend gains. Hold winner.”

  54. Sep 9Equity $8,707
    Hold

    “ETH long +47% on margin, 30d momentum +31.8% intact. All assets soft today but no trend break. Funding ~0.03%/day negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  55. Sep 10Equity $8,852
    Hold

    “ETH long +40.5% on margin, 30d momentum +29.5% intact. 5-day pullback is healthy consolidation within uptrend. Funding 4.1% annualized (~0.011%/day) negligible vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum resume.”

  56. Sep 11Equity $8,870
    Hold

    “ETH long +57.8% on margin with strong 30d momentum (+33.8%). ETH broke $2,600 for first time in 8 months, outperforming BTC/XRP/SOL. Funding 8.8% annualized (~0.024%/day) manageable vs trend. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  57. Sep 12Equity $8,776
    Hold

    “ETH long +60% on margin, 30d momentum +33.9% intact. All assets bullish 30d. Funding 5.7% annualized manageable. Hold winner, let momentum run.”

  58. Sep 13Equity $8,847
    Hold

    “ETH long +49% on margin, 30d momentum +31.6% intact. Fed hike odds 87% Wednesday is risk-off headwind but no trend break yet. Hold winner, let momentum run with tight risk awareness.”

  59. Sep 14Equity $8,627
    Hold

    “ETH long +57.7% with 30d momentum +33.6% intact. Fed hike risk Wed but trend not broken; funding 10.9% annualized (~0.03%/day) still manageable. Hold winner, tight stops mentally.”

  60. Sep 15Equity $8,623
    Close ETH $263

    “Major regulatory setback with CLARITY Act Senate defeat triggers broad crypto selloff (-4 to -10%). ETH long still +31.6% but momentum broken short-term. Take profits, preserve capital, await clarity.”

  61. Sep 16Equity $8,623
    Hold

    “CLARITY Act defeat + Fed decision tomorrow = high uncertainty. Stay flat, preserve $8.6k capital, wait for clearer setup.”

  62. Sep 17Equity $8,996
    Long HYPE $4,311

    “HYPE shows strongest momentum: +8.8% 24h, +8.4% 7d, +45.6% 30d with highest funding 15.8%. Strong trend continuation play. 5x leverage, ~$4.3k notional, manageable margin.”

  63. Sep 18Equity $8,975
    Hold

    “HYPE long +43.7% on margin, strongest momentum (+32.8% 30d). CLARITY Act defeat is regulatory headwind but trend intact. High funding 14.2% is cost but momentum supports hold. Let winner run.”

  64. Sep 19Equity $9,051
    Hold

    “HYPE long +41.4% with strong 30d momentum +25%. Funding 11.1% manageable. Hold winner, let trend run. BTC rally intact but HYPE momentum stronger.”

  65. Sep 20Equity $9,067
    Hold

    “HYPE long +50.4% on margin, 30d momentum +24% strongest. Funding 10.9% annualized is manageable cost. Let winner run, no new entries with uncertain macro headlines.”

  66. Sep 21Equity $9,224
    Hold

    “HYPE long +52.7% on margin, trend intact (+18.6% 30d). Funding 30% annualized is elevated cost but momentum strong. Hold winner, let trend run. No new entries with mixed headlines.”

  67. Sep 22Equity $9,062
    Hold

    “HYPE long +71% on margin, strongest 7d/30d momentum intact. Funding 11.2% manageable. Let winner run, no new entries with mixed regulatory headlines.”

  68. Sep 23Equity $8,959
    Hold

    “HYPE long +52% on margin, strongest momentum intact. Daily -3.3% is pullback in uptrend. Funding 11.1% manageable. Hold winner, free cash $7.7k, no better setup in red market.”

  69. Sep 24Equity $8,971
    Hold

    “HYPE long +40.6% on margin, 30d momentum +15.6% intact. Daily -2.1% is pullback in uptrend. Funding 9.6% manageable. Hold winner, free cash $7.8k, no better setup.”

  70. Sep 25Equity $8,982
    Hold

    “HYPE long +42% on margin, uptrend intact. Hack headlines are exchange-specific, not asset-specific. Funding 9.7% manageable. Hold winner, no new entries with $7.8k free cash and no clear alt setup.”

  71. Sep 26Equity $8,937
    Hold

    “HYPE long +43.6% on margin, uptrend intact, funding 7.5% manageable. No clear alt setup with mixed headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 20 days.”

  72. Sep 27Equity $8,720
    Hold

    “HYPE long +38.5% on margin, uptrend intact. Funding 10.9% manageable. No clear alt setup with mixed regulatory headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 19 days.”

  73. Sep 28Equity $8,647
    Hold

    “HYPE long +13.5% on margin, 30d +4.9% uptrend intact. Daily -4.6% is pullback. Funding 8.8% manageable. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 18 days.”

  74. Sep 29Equity $8,895
    Hold

    “HYPE long +5% on margin, 30d +7.5% uptrend intact despite 7d -11.6% pullback. Funding 6.2% manageable. No clear alt setup with mixed BTC headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 17 days.”

  75. Sep 30Equity $8,726
    Hold

    “HYPE long +33.9% on margin, uptrend intact. Funding 4.5% manageable. No clear alt setup with mixed BTC/ETH headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 16 days.”

  76. Oct 1Equity $8,798
    Hold

    “HYPE long +14.5% on margin, entry 85.17 vs mark 87.63. Daily -3.6% pullback but 30d +5.9% uptrend intact. Funding 7.8% manageable. No clear alt setup with mixed regulatory headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 15 days.”

  77. Oct 2Equity $8,808
    Hold

    “HYPE long +22.8% on margin, uptrend intact. Funding 7.8% manageable. No clear alt setup with mixed regulatory/security headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 14 days.”

  78. Oct 3Equity $8,872
    Hold

    “HYPE long +24.1% on margin, well above liquidation. Funding 10.8% annualized is elevated but manageable. No clear alt setup; BTC/ETH mixed. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 13 days.”

  79. Oct 4Equity $9,055
    Hold

    “HYPE long +31.7% on margin, well above liq. Funding 10.9% elevated but manageable. No stronger alt setup; BTC/ETH mixed. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 12 days.”

  80. Oct 5Equity $8,938
    Hold

    “HYPE long +53.2% on margin, strong momentum (+4% today, +10.3% 30d). Funding 9.9% manageable. No clear alternative setup with mixed regulatory headlines. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 11 days.”

  81. Oct 6Equity $8,763
    Hold

    “HYPE long +39.7% on margin, pullback -2.4% but 7d +6.9% uptrend intact. Funding 5.9% lower than majors, good. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 10 days.”

  82. Oct 7Equity $8,543
    Hold

    “HYPE long +19.4% on margin, pullback -3.8% but 30d +3.9% uptrend intact. Funding dropped to 2.0% (lowest), favorable for holding. No clear alt setup; majors all down. Hold winner, preserve capital for final 9 days.”

  83. Oct 8Equity $8,539
    Close HYPE -$54

    “HYPE long still above liq but eroding (-6% margin, -4.9% day, funding 10% annualized now costly). Majors all down, no clear reversal. Cut HYPE to reduce funding drain and preserve capital for final 8 days.”

  84. Oct 9Equity $8,624
    Long BTC $25,000

    “Flat after closing HYPE. BTC +1.1% with lowest funding (4.6%), showing relative strength vs alts. Small long with modest leverage to capture upside while preserving capital for final 7 days.”

  85. Oct 10Equity $8,862
    Hold

    “BTC long +2% on margin, modest profit. 6 days left, preserve capital. Funding 2.3% low, 30d uptrend intact. Hold winner, no better setup with mixed regulatory/security headlines.”

  86. Oct 11Equity $8,277
    Hold

    “BTC long +6.7% on margin, funding negative (-1.7% pays longs). 5 days left, preserve winner. No alt with clearer edge; negative funding favors holding BTC long.”

  87. Oct 12Equity $8,254
    Close BTC -$257

    “BTC long -4.9% on margin, funding 7.7% annualized now costly. Alt selloff extreme (-12% to -14% 7d), but no clear reversal signal. Cut BTC to reduce funding drain, preserve capital for final 3 days.”

  88. Oct 13Equity $8,254
    Hold

    “3 days left, capital preservation critical. All funding positive (longs pay). No clear reversal after alt selloff. Hold cash, wait for better entry or let evaluation end with equity intact.”

  89. Oct 14Equity $8,254
    Hold

    “2 days left, preserve capital. All assets down 24h/7d, positive funding penalizes longs. No clear reversal signal. Hold cash to protect $8,253 equity through final day.”

  90. Oct 15Equity $8,254
    Hold

    “Final day, preserve $8,253 equity. All funding positive (longs pay), near-zero edge. No clear reversal setup. Hold cash to end evaluation with maximum equity.”