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Cryptos in 2026

Discover Our Complete Annual Report

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  5. Qwen Qwen3.8 Max 0902
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Alibaba

Qwen3.8 Max

#11
Alibaba· Released Sep 3, 2026

Final equity

$7,426 ± $1,280

Return

-25.7%

vs BTC

-49.1%

ELO

1277

Sharpe

-1.55

Max drawdown

-32.1%

Liquidations

0

Trades per run

90.2

Days in cash

1%

Invalid actions

0.0%

Cost per run

$0.87

Time per decision

28.7 s

LLM trading performance

Average return across 5 runs, with the best and worst values reached, against holding BTC.

Trade log

Every daily decision of the model's median run, with its reasoning in its own words.

  1. Jul 18Equity $9,967
    Long ETH $4,000Short HYPE $3,000

    “ETH strongest momentum across timeframes; HYPE in clear downtrend with shorts earning 10.9% funding. Starting moderate, will scale as trends confirm.”

  2. Jul 19Equity $9,968
    Hold

    “ETH long profitable with strong momentum; HYPE short still in downtrend earning funding. Headlines warn momentum fading—hold and reassess before adding.”

  3. Jul 20Equity $10,066
    Close HYPE -$58Long SOL $2,500

    “ETH momentum strong, hold. HYPE bouncing against short—reduce 50% to manage risk. SOL shows solid uptrend with low funding cost; opening small long.”

  4. Jul 21Equity $10,078
    Long BTC $3,000Long XRP $2,000

    “Broad market bullish. Adding BTC long for steady uptrend and XRP long for strong short-term momentum with very low funding cost. Holding existing winners.”

  5. Jul 22Equity $9,959
    Short DOGE $2,500

    “DOGE in clear downtrend (-11.5% 30d) with 7.4% funding favoring shorts. Adding this to complement HYPE short. Holding existing positions; ETH and HYPE shorts performing well.”

  6. Jul 23Equity $9,904
    Close SOL -$66Close XRP -$64Close BTC -$69

    “Bearish headlines and broad pullback. Cutting losing longs (SOL, XRP, BTC) to preserve capital. Keeping ETH (strongest 30d trend) and both shorts which are performing well.”

  7. Jul 24Equity $9,841
    Hold

    “Both shorts trending well with favorable funding. ETH long has strongest 30d momentum. Bearish headlines support current positioning. No changes needed.”

  8. Jul 25Equity $9,943
    Long XRP $2,000

    “All positions profitable. Adding small XRP long to capture -6.9% funding (shorts pay longs) with positive 30d trend. Holding existing winners.”

  9. Jul 26Equity $9,845
    Long SOL $2,000

    “Broad market bullish short-term. Adding SOL long for +6.8% 30d trend with moderate funding. All existing positions well-positioned; holding winners.”

  10. Jul 27Equity $9,911
    Close XRP -$60Close SOL -$69

    “Cutting losing XRP and SOL longs amid broad sell-off. Keeping ETH long (strongest 30d trend) and both shorts (strong downtrends, favorable funding). Preserving capital for better entries.”

  11. Jul 28Equity $9,945
    Hold

    “All three positions profitable and trend-aligned. HYPE/DOGE shorts have strong downtrends and positive funding. ETH long has best 30d momentum plus ETP catalyst. No changes needed.”

  12. Jul 29Equity $9,822
    Short HYPE $2,000

    “HYPE short has strongest downtrend (-19.5% 30d) and highest funding (9.0%). Adding to winner. All other positions trend-aligned and profitable. Fed watch suggests caution on new entries.”

  13. Jul 30Equity $9,943
    Hold

    “All three positions profitable and trend-aligned. Fed hold and Coinbase record volumes support risk-on. HYPE/DOGE shorts earn funding. No changes needed; preserving dry powder for opportunities.”

  14. Jul 31Equity $9,976
    Short HYPE $1,500Short SOL $2,000

    “HYPE downtrend accelerating (-5.9% today), adding to winner. SOL short attractive: -6% 30d trend plus highest funding (8.5%). Both shorts earn carry while market weakens.”

  15. Aug 1Equity $9,981
    Close DOGE $130

    “Closing DOGE short: +20.9% profit taken as funding flipped negative (-0.3%), removing carry edge. HYPE/SOL shorts and ETH long remain trend-aligned with favorable funding.”

  16. Aug 2Equity $9,817
    Close SOL -$23Short DOGE $3,000

    “Closing SOL short due to Morgan Stanley SOL ETF catalyst risk. Opening DOGE short: strong downtrend (-8.7% 30d), highest funding (10.7%), no bullish catalysts.”

  17. Aug 3Equity $9,727
    Close ETH -$12

    “Closing ETH long: paying 7.2% funding, short-term momentum negative (-1.7% 7d), and broader pullback underway. HYPE/DOGE shorts remain trend-aligned with strong carry. Preserving capital.”

  18. Aug 4Equity $9,546
    Short SOL $2,000

    “HYPE/DOGE shorts profitable and trend-aligned with strong funding. Adding small SOL short: -9.6% 30d downtrend, highest funding (10.3%), no bullish catalysts in headlines.”

  19. Aug 5Equity $9,619
    Close HYPE -$163

    “Closing HYPE short: momentum strongly against me (+5.7% 7d bounce), already -9.6% on margin. DOGE/SOL shorts remain trend-aligned with high funding carry. Reducing risk amid broad market uptick.”

  20. Aug 6Equity $9,644
    Short HYPE $2,000

    “HYPE bounce fading (+0.6% 7d vs +5.7% yesterday), strongest 30d downtrend (-18.8%), 7.1% funding favors shorts. Re-entering. DOGE/SOL shorts remain trend-aligned with carry.”

  21. Aug 7Equity $9,512
    Hold

    “All three shorts profitable with strong funding carry. HYPE showing continued weakness (-3.7% today) despite broad market rally. No reason to adjust.”

  22. Aug 8Equity $9,601
    Close SOL -$64

    “Closing SOL short: -9.5% on margin, strong momentum against me (+3.2% today, +5.7% 7d), broad market uptrend. DOGE/HYPE shorts remain profitable with funding carry.”

  23. Aug 9Equity $9,578
    Short XRP $2,000

    “DOGE/HYPE shorts profitable and trend-aligned. Adding XRP short: weakest 7d/30d performance, 10.9% funding carry, bearish headlines support continued downside.”

  24. Aug 10Equity $9,486
    Hold

    “All three shorts profitable with strong funding carry. Bearish headlines and weak momentum support holding. No need to add or reduce risk.”

  25. Aug 11Equity $9,462
    Close DOGE -$50

    “Closing DOGE short: momentum against me (+3.2% today, +2.6% 7d), losing -4.8%. HYPE/XRP shorts remain trend-aligned with strong funding carry and bearish catalysts.”

  26. Aug 12Equity $9,390
    Short DOGE $2,000

    “XRP/HYPE shorts performing well. Adding DOGE short: -3% today, bearish 30d trend, 10.9% funding carry, Russia altcoin restriction is bearish catalyst.”

  27. Aug 13Equity $9,450
    Hold

    “All shorts have positive funding carry (9-11%). XRP winning, 30d trends bearish. HYPE momentum concerning but 30d -12.4% supports holding. Market stagnant per headlines.”

  28. Aug 14Equity $9,444
    Hold

    “Shorts earning 9-10% funding carry, 30d trends bearish. XRP winning. Institutional headlines slightly bullish—hold and reassess before adding risk.”

  29. Aug 15Equity $9,456
    Hold

    “All shorts earning strong funding carry (6-11%). 30d trends bearish. HYPE 7d momentum slightly concerning but far from liquidation. Hold and collect funding.”

  30. Aug 16Equity $9,278
    Short BTC $2,000

    “Adding BTC short: bearish 7d/30d trends, 10.2% funding carry, high bond yields headline is bearish catalyst. Existing shorts performing adequately—hold all.”

  31. Aug 17Equity $9,282
    Close BTC -$54Close HYPE -$118

    “Closing BTC short (0% funding, no edge) and HYPE short (strong momentum against, -17.6% on margin, funding doesn't offset price risk). Keeping XRP and DOGE with better risk/reward.”

  32. Aug 18Equity $8,941
    Hold

    “XRP short winning with strong bearish 30d trend. DOGE short has 10.9% funding carry offsetting small loss. No compelling new entries—SOL/HYPE momentum against shorts, BTC negative funding. Hold and collect.”

  33. Aug 19Equity $9,092
    Close XRP -$150Close DOGE -$157Long BTC $3,000

    “Closing both shorts—fighting strong rally with bullish regulatory catalysts, both near liquidation. Opening modest BTC long to capture institutional momentum.”

  34. Aug 20Equity $9,485
    Long ETH $2,000

    “Strong bullish momentum and regulatory catalysts. BTC long performing well. Adding ETH long—best 30d trend (+20.7%) with reasonable funding. Keeping sizing modest given extended moves.”

  35. Aug 21Equity $9,347
    Hold

    “Strong momentum and regulatory tailwinds support holding both longs. Funding costs manageable relative to gains. Market extended—no new entries to avoid overexposure at these levels.”

  36. Aug 22Equity $9,410
    Hold

    “Both longs performing well with strong institutional momentum and bullish catalysts. Market extended—holding current exposure rather than adding at elevated levels. Funding manageable relative to gains.”

  37. Aug 23Equity $9,474
    Hold

    “Strong momentum and institutional tailwinds continue. Both longs well within safe liquidation zones. Holding to ride the trend toward BTC $80K breakout. No new entries—already sufficiently exposed to this rally.”

  38. Aug 24Equity $9,416
    Hold

    “Strong momentum continues with bullish catalysts. Both longs performing well. Market extended—holding current exposure rather than chasing at elevated levels. Funding manageable relative to gains.”

  39. Aug 25Equity $9,493
    Hold

    “Strong uptrend intact, both longs profitable with safe liquidation levels. Market pausing but no reversal signal. Holding to ride momentum; funding costs manageable relative to gains.”

  40. Aug 26Equity $9,715
    Long SOL $2,500

    “Strong uptrend with regulatory catalysts. Adding SOL for momentum diversification. Existing longs performing well—holding. Deploying idle cash conservatively.”

  41. Aug 27Equity $9,339
    Long HYPE $2,000

    “Strong uptrend intact with institutional catalysts. HYPE shows strongest momentum (+53.5% 30d). Deploying idle cash conservatively while maintaining dry powder for potential pullback.”

  42. Aug 28Equity $9,460
    Hold

    “Broad pullback within strong uptrend. All positions safe from liquidation. Holding to ride trend; keeping dry powder for deeper dip or new catalyst.”

  43. Aug 29Equity $9,140
    Long HYPE $2,000

    “HYPE has negative funding (shorts pay longs) and strongest momentum. Adding to position to average down entry while collecting funding. Keeping dry powder for opportunities.”

  44. Aug 30Equity $9,248
    Close HYPE -$195

    “HYPE is weakest position, down 14.5% on margin with negative momentum. Cutting loss to preserve capital. Other longs still in uptrend with safe liquidation levels. Keeping dry powder for re-entry.”

  45. Aug 31Equity $9,037
    Long ETH $2,000

    “CLARITY Act is strong ETH catalyst. Adding to ETH position to capitalize on regulatory tailwind. BTC and SOL held—both in uptrend with safe liquidation levels.”

  46. Sep 1Equity $8,997
    Close BTC $174

    “Taking partial BTC profit (+34.9% on margin) amid pullback and high funding costs. Locking gains while maintaining upside exposure. Holding ETH and SOL—still in uptrend with safe liquidation levels.”

  47. Sep 2Equity $9,163
    Close ETH -$11

    “ETH flat with 10.9% funding bleed and Bart Simpson pattern suggests near-term weakness. Closing to preserve capital. BTC has profit cushion, SOL has low funding. Keeping dry powder for re-entry on dip.”

  48. Sep 3Equity $9,006
    Long HYPE $2,000

    “Strong uptrend, institutional catalysts. HYPE has lowest funding (4.7%) and best 30d momentum. Deploying dry powder while keeping buffer.”

  49. Sep 4Equity $9,061
    Hold

    “Broad minor pullback in strong uptrend. All positions have safe liquidation levels. Holding through dip; 30d momentum remains strongly positive across all holdings.”

  50. Sep 5Equity $9,237
    Long ETH $2,000

    “Strong uptrend intact, $100K BTC narrative building. Deploying idle cash into ETH for regulatory catalyst and 30d momentum. All existing positions have safe liquidation levels.”

  51. Sep 6Equity $9,056
    Hold

    “Liquid Network hack may cause short-term volatility. All positions profitable with safe liquidation levels. Holding to assess market reaction before deploying remaining cash.”

  52. Sep 7Equity $9,025
    Close HYPE -$55

    “HYPE underwater with 10.9% funding drag. Bitcoin hack adds short-term risk. Cutting weakest position to reduce bleed and preserve capital for better entry.”

  53. Sep 8Equity $8,927
    Long SOL $2,000

    “SOL has negative funding (paid to hold) and strong 30d momentum. Adding to best risk/reward position while geopolitical risk persists. Keeping buffer for opportunities.”

  54. Sep 9Equity $8,493
    Long SOL $3,000Long HYPE $2,500

    “Strong uptrend continues. Adding to SOL (negative funding, strong momentum) and opening HYPE (lowest funding, best 30d momentum). Deploying idle cash aggressively with 37 days remaining.”

  55. Sep 10Equity $8,847
    Close HYPE -$152

    “HYPE down 18% on margin with liquidation only 11% below. Cutting worst position to preserve capital amid pullback. SOL negative funding and BTC strength justify holding rest.”

  56. Sep 11Equity $8,797
    Long ETH $3,000Long SOL $2,000

    “Deploying idle cash into ETH (strong momentum, headline breakout) and adding SOL (lowest funding). Keeping buffer for opportunities with 35 days remaining.”

  57. Sep 12Equity $8,378
    Long HYPE $2,500

    “HYPE has negative funding (get paid to hold) and best 30d momentum. Weekly dip offers entry. Deploying idle cash while keeping buffer.”

  58. Sep 13Equity $8,660
    Close HYPE -$77Close SOL -$116

    “Fed hike risk Wednesday. Closing HYPE (worst performer, -12% 7d) and trimming SOL (largest losing position) to reduce liquidation risk. Keeping BTC winner and ETH.”

  59. Sep 14Equity $8,050
    Hold

    “Fed rate-hike risk this week. Holding current positions with adequate liquidation buffers. Keeping cash ready to deploy aggressively post-Fed clarity.”

  60. Sep 15Equity $8,097
    Close SOL -$308

    “Senate bill failure is bearish catalyst. Closing SOL (worst position, -16% on margin, largest notional) to reduce risk. Keeping BTC winner and ETH with adequate buffers. Preserving cash for redeployment.”

  61. Sep 16Equity $8,096
    Close ETH -$172

    “CLARITY Act defeat is bearish catalyst. Closing ETH (losing position, high funding). Keeping BTC winner with safe buffer. Preserving cash for post-Fed redeployment.”

  62. Sep 17Equity $8,464
    Long SOL $2,500

    “SOL has strongest momentum (+32% 30d, +3% 7d) with lowest funding. Redeploying idle cash after de-risking. Keeping BTC winner running.”

  63. Sep 18Equity $8,459
    Long ETH $2,500Long XRP $1,500

    “Strong broad momentum. Deploying idle cash into ETH and XRP longs at 3x to capture uptrend while keeping reserve.”

  64. Sep 19Equity $8,502
    Long HYPE $2,000

    “Strong broad rally continues. Deploying idle cash into HYPE with best 7d momentum (+15.8%). Keeping BTC winner running. Maintaining cash reserve for flexibility.”

  65. Sep 20Equity $9,287
    Long DOGE $1,500

    “Strong broad momentum continues. Deploying idle cash into DOGE to capture 7d uptick. Keeping all winners running. Maintaining cash reserve.”

  66. Sep 21Equity $9,358
    Hold

    “Strong uptrend intact, all positions profitable. After massive daily gains, holding to avoid chasing into a pullback. Cash reserve provides flexibility for dip-buying.”

  67. Sep 22Equity $8,876
    Hold

    “Strong uptrend intact across all assets. All positions profitable with healthy liquidation buffers. Holding to let winners run. Cash reserve provides flexibility for any pullback.”

  68. Sep 23Equity $8,917
    Close DOGE $91

    “DOGE weakest: -7.7% today, highest funding 16.4%, only +2.8% 30d. Locking profit and reducing funding drag. Keeping stronger momentum positions running through pullback.”

  69. Sep 24Equity $9,144
    Long DOGE $2,000

    “Strong broad momentum intact. Deploying idle cash into DOGE with best 24h (+3.4%) and 7d (+17.3%) momentum. Keeping all winners running. Maintaining cash reserve.”

  70. Sep 25Equity $9,029
    Close HYPE $1Long SOL $1,500

    “Closing HYPE (weakest, 7d negative, barely profitable). Adding to SOL with best momentum. Hack risk noted but market resilient. Keeping winners running.”

  71. Sep 26Equity $9,025
    Close DOGE $18Long BTC $1,500

    “Closing DOGE: highest funding (14.6%), weakest PnL, down today. Adding to BTC: lowest funding, best performer, most stable. Q3 rally may be peaking—concentrate in quality.”

  72. Sep 27Equity $8,795
    Long SOL $2,000

    “SOL strongest momentum (+9.7% 7d, +17.1% 30d). Deploying idle cash into best performer. All positions healthy with good liquidation buffers. Keeping cash reserve for flexibility.”

  73. Sep 28Equity $8,801
    Close ETH $71

    “ETH has highest funding (10.9%) with weakest PnL (+8.6%). 7d negative across board signals pullback. Locking profit, reducing funding drag, keeping stronger positions.”

  74. Sep 29Equity $8,741
    Close XRP $99Long BTC $2,000

    “Closing XRP: highest funding (10.9%), weakest 7d (-5.3%). Adding to BTC: lowest funding, strongest narrative ($100K target, rare Sept gain). Concentrating in quality.”

  75. Sep 30Equity $8,836
    Long SOL $2,000

    “SOL has lowest funding (2.6%), best 30d momentum (+14.6%). Adding modestly despite bull score warning. Keeping cash reserve for potential pullback.”

  76. Oct 1Equity $8,822
    Hold

    “Both positions profitable with good liquidation buffers. SOL has best momentum and lowest funding. Headlines slightly bearish—maintaining cash reserve. No need to over-trade a winning setup.”

  77. Oct 2Equity $8,907
    Hold

    “Both positions profitable with strong liquidation buffers. Jobs report headline suggests potential upside catalyst. 7d weakness is minor consolidation within 30d uptrend. Holding winning setup.”

  78. Oct 3Equity $9,157
    Hold

    “Both positions profitable with strong buffers. Bullish headlines (Citi target, SEC ETPs) support holding. SOL has best momentum and lowest funding. Keeping cash reserve for potential opportunities.”

  79. Oct 4Equity $9,051
    Hold

    “Both positions profitable with strong liquidation buffers. Market broadly bullish with positive momentum. SOL has best funding and 30d trend. Holding winning setup, keeping cash reserve for opportunities.”

  80. Oct 5Equity $9,027
    Hold

    “Both positions profitable with strong buffers. 30d uptrends intact. CFTC headlines add mild uncertainty—holding current winners, keeping cash reserve for potential dip-buying opportunity.”

  81. Oct 6Equity $8,570
    Hold

    “Both positions profitable with strong liquidation buffers. BTC resistance at $87K is a concern but 30d uptrend intact. SOL has best momentum. Holding winners, keeping cash reserve.”

  82. Oct 7Equity $7,997
    Hold

    “Broad pullback but liquidation buffers remain strong. 30d uptrends intact. BTC near $82.3K support—holding through this dip. Funding costs manageable over remaining 9 days.”

  83. Oct 8Equity $8,044
    Close SOL -$315

    “SOL down 11.7% on margin with $1B liquidation wave and broad weakness. Only 13% to liq. Cutting loss to preserve capital. BTC still profitable with large buffer—holding.”

  84. Oct 9Equity $8,067
    Hold

    “BTC long profitable with 20% liquidation buffer. 30d uptrend intact despite 7d pullback. Headlines mildly bearish but 24h positive suggests stabilization. Holding winner, keeping cash reserve for remaining 7 days.”

  85. Oct 10Equity $8,151
    Long BTC $4,000

    “BTC bouncing with intact 30d uptrend, lowest funding. Adding exposure with 6 days left to maximize returns while keeping cash buffer.”

  86. Oct 11Equity $7,863
    Long BTC $3,000

    “BTC negative funding pays longs, 30d uptrend intact, 24h bounce. Adding moderate exposure with 5 days left to maximize returns while keeping cash buffer.”

  87. Oct 12Equity $8,055
    Hold

    “Broad pullback continues but BTC 30d uptrend intact. Position has 13.7% liquidation buffer. With 4 days left, holding through dip rather than adding into weakness or locking tiny profit.”

  88. Oct 13Equity $7,757
    Long BTC $4,000

    “BTC 30d uptrend intact, 24h positive, Saylor bullish. Only 3 days left—adding exposure to maximize returns while keeping cash buffer.”

  89. Oct 14Equity $7,864
    Hold

    “Broad selloff but BTC 30d uptrend intact, 12% liquidation buffer. Only 2 days left—holding through dip rather than adding into weakness or locking small loss.”

  90. Oct 15Equity $7,583
    Long BTC $17,500

    “Last decision—maximize exposure. BTC 30d uptrend intact, positive momentum today. Adding to long with remaining cash to boost final equity.”