Strategy opens the door to $2 billion in BTC sales and this is not necessarily negative
BT
MSAlpha Recap #32: Strategy ready to sell BTC, eToro backs Extended, and +1,000% on Synapse
Published on
In this new edition of the Alpha Recap, we cover the week's key insights across the crypto market: major news, yield and airdrop strategies, important data points, and quick analysis - all designed to cut through the noise.
The Alpha Recap is designed to highlight the most important crypto market Alphas of the week. Every Friday, we bring you a condensed breakdown of the most valuable insights from our Alpha Feed.
Reserved for OAK Premium members, the Alpha Feed brings together market insights, yield and airdrop strategies, along with key information across the crypto landscape. In other words, it reflects OAK Research’s core DNA: delivering filtered, high-signal content that goes beyond the noise.
Strategy opens the door to selling Bitcoin
This is without a doubt one of the most important stories of the moment. This week, Michael Saylor and Strategy unveiled their new Digital Credit Capital Framework, with one announcement that immediately caught the market’s attention: the world’s largest Bitcoin Treasury Company is now explicitly allowing itself to sell part of its BTC holdings.
As a reminder, the entire model revolves around mNAV, the multiple comparing the company’s market capitalization to the value of its Bitcoin treasury. As long as that premium remained comfortably above 1, Strategy could issue common stock well above the value of its assets, fund more BTC purchases, and keep compounding value. But now that mNAV has fallen back toward 1, that mechanism is losing efficiency, especially as preferred shares now represent nearly $1.5 billion in annual dividend obligations.
This new framework is a direct response to that pressure. Beyond a new dollar reserve policy, a 12% STRC dividend, and two additional share buyback programs, the real focus has been on the BTC Monetization Program. The reason is simple: Strategy is now giving itself the ability to monetize up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to strengthen its balance sheet and secure future obligations.
The market interpreted this as a sign of weakness. Our reading is almost the opposite.
→ Why we believe this shift actually reduces systemic risk around Strategy, what it changes for MSTR and STRC, and why the timing may be far from random as Bitcoin could be building a local bottom: we break it all down in our dedicated Premium Alpha on the subject.
Become Premium
Unlock all our research and get the right insights, at the right time.
eToro backs Extended: how should this be interpreted?
This week, perp DEX Extended, built on Starknet, closed a $12.5 million funding round led by eToro, with participation from Jump Crypto and Alber Blanc. Strategically, this follows eToro’s acquisition of Zengo back in April for $70 million, with the wallet now set to integrate Extended directly into its interface.
What makes this notable is that it comes at the same time Robinhood is moving in a similar direction, having integrated Lighter into its own wallet earlier this week. In both cases, the trajectory is becoming clearer: brokers historically rooted in TradFi are gradually building full-stack crypto infrastructures, where wallets, DEXs, spot, perps, and CEXs coexist within the same ecosystem.
As a reminder, Extended has been distributing over one million points per week to users since launching its incentives program a little over a year ago, though no tokenomics or airdrop framework have been announced yet.
→ In our dedicated Alpha, we explored what a fair FDV for Extended could look like by benchmarking it against competitors, and detailed the most relevant strategies to position for a potential airdrop.
Synapse: +1,000% in one month, is there still upside?
Synapse’s SYN token has posted one of the most aggressive moves of the past few weeks, climbing more than 1,000% in a month and pushing its market cap above $130 million. Once one of the most prominent cross-chain bridges of the 2021 cycle before largely fading into irrelevance, the protocol is now regaining traction through a somewhat unexpected pivot toward Hypercall, an on-chain options platform partly built on Hyperliquid’s infrastructure.
In practice, this rebound is mainly driven by two catalysts. First, the launch in early June of an options product on SPCX, allowing exposure to SpaceX private shares, still a very rare product in the market. Second, and more importantly, Arthur Hayes stepped into the picture in late June after accumulating roughly $2.2 million worth of SYN through OTC deals.
As is often the case with his positioning, he did not hesitate to publicly promote the project to his audience. It worked: the market reacted immediately, with nearly 40% upside in the aftermath, while the “next HYPE” narrative quickly took over social media.
This is exactly where the story becomes harder to assess. Comparing a very young options platform to one of DeFi’s biggest recent success stories requires a number of assumptions that deserve much closer scrutiny.
→ In our dedicated Alpha, we explain why we believe the Hyperliquid comparison is largely overstated, what Hypercall’s real volumes look like against Derive, and why our view on SYN remains far more cautious than the current market consensus.
Start Trading on Hyperliquid
Trade 100+ perps with up to 40x leverage on a fully decentralized exchange.
